Long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina and recurrence probability of the severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires

Rusticucci, Matilde; Kyselý, Jan; Almeira, Gustavo; Lhotka, Ondřej

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1445-7

Cited by 54 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This heat wave was the longest and the most intense, considering the accumulation of degrees over thresholds, ever registered in the region. Record values of minimum temperature were verified in a station close to Buenos Aires with an estimated 100‐year return period . The power system collapsed in many sectors of Buenos Aires and of other cities because of the intense use of air conditioning.…”

Section: Observed Climate Changementioning

confidence: 95%

“…For example, the number and intensity of heat waves defined as at least three consecutive days over the 90th percentile temperature of the 1961–1990 record has increased between 1961 and 2010, with the strongest increase in the intensity and number of heat waves of short duration (3–5 days). Although there is large decadal variability, the decade 2001–2010 has generally seen the largest number of heat waves …”

Section: Observed Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation

Barros

Boninsegna²,

Camilloni

et al. 2014

WIREs Climate Change

Self Cite

232

145

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In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present‐day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:151–169. doi: 10.1002/wcc.316 This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > National Reviews

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Section: Observed Climate Changementioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Observed Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation

Barros

Boninsegna²,

Camilloni

et al. 2014

WIREs Climate Change

Self Cite

232

145

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Climatologists worldwide have shown a significant increase in HWs number, duration, and intensity, and a decrease of the same parameters of CWs. These findings could explain the increase in HW‐related mortality and the decrease in CW‐related mortality (Radinović and Ćurić, ; Oleson et al, ; Rusticucci et al, ; Spinoni et al, ; Wang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania

Piticar

Croitoru

Ciupertea

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this paper, we investigated changes in heat and cold waves in Romania over the period 1961–2015 by employing a new and superior approach. It consists in using excess heat factor to identify heat waves and excess cold factor to identify cold waves. Five indices were calculated and then analysed for both heat waves and cold waves resulting in a set of ten indices. Indices for heat waves were analysed for the extended summer season (May–September), whereas those for cold waves were assessed for the extended winter (November–March). The intensity threshold was set to be equal or above the 90th percentile for heat waves, and equal or below the 10th percentile for cold waves, while the duration threshold for both heat and cold waves was of at least three consecutive days. For a better comparison with other studies conducted worldwide, and to get more information from the data sets, the percentile thresholds for heat and cold waves identification were calculated based on three reference periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, and 1981–2010. Trends were calculated using ordinary least square method, whereas statistical significance was assessed by the t‐test. The main results indicated that changes are more substantial in the case of indices calculated based on excess heat factor compared to those based on excess cold factor, suggesting that the warming process is more reflected in heat waves rather than in cold waves. Thus, heat waves became more frequent, longer, and more intense, while cold waves became less frequent, but more intense. When the reference period for percentile threshold calculation was changed from the earliest to the most recent ones, the frequency of increasing and significant increasing trends decreased for some of the heat wave indices, while for the cold wave indices the significant downward trends increased.

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“…Extreme high temperatures and related events such as heat waves (HWs) and warm spells (WSs) have been largely documented to show that they have increased in magnitude and frequency over the last few decades in most regions of the planet [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Usually, when a relative threshold is used to define extreme high temperature events over the year, HWs term is employed for summer, late spring, and early winter events (May-September), while WS term is frequently used for winter, late autumn, and early spring events (October-April).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic Conditions Generating Heat Waves and Warm Spells in Romania

et al. 2017

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Abstract:Heat waves and warm spells are extreme meteorological events that generate a significant number of casualties in temperate regions, as well as outside of temperate regions. For the purpose of this paper, heat waves and warm spells were identified based on daily maximum temperatures recorded at 27 weather stations located in Romania over a 55-year period . The intensity threshold was the 90th percentile, and the length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. We analyzed 111 heat wave and warm spell events totaling 423 days. The classification of synoptic conditions was based on daily reanalysis at three geopotential levels and on the online version of a backward trajectories model. The main findings are that there are two major types of genetic conditions. These were identified as: (i) radiative heat waves and warm spells (type A) generated by warming the air mass due to high amounts of radiation which was found dominant in warm season; and (ii) advective heat waves and warm spells (type B) generated mainly by warm air mass advection which prevails in winter and transition seasons. These major types consist of two and three sub-types, respectively. The results could become a useful tool for weather forecasters in order to better predict the occurrence of heat waves and warm spells.

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Long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina and recurrence probability of the severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires

Cited by 54 publications

References 16 publications

Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation

Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation

Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania

Synoptic Conditions Generating Heat Waves and Warm Spells in Romania

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