Long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution and the related health burden for 2000–2015

Abstract

Global economic development and urbanization during the past two decades have driven the increases in demand of personal and commercial vehicle fleets, especially in developing countries, which has likely resulted in changes in year-to-year vehicle tailpipe emissions associated with aerosols and trace gases. However, long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on air quality and human health are not clear. In this study, we employ the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in conjunction with the newly developed Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) as anthropogenic emission inventory to quantify the long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient air quality and human health for the period of 2000-2015. Global gasoline and diesel emissions contributed to regional increases in annual mean surface PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≦ 2.5 µm) concentrations by up to 17.5 and 13.7 µg/m3, and surface ozone (O3) concentrations by up to 7.1 and 7.2 ppbv, respectively, for 2000-2015. However, we also found substantial declines of surface PM2.5 and O3 concentrations over Europe, the US, Canada, and China for the same period, which suggested the co-benefits of air quality and human health from improving gasoline and diesel fuel quality and tightening vehicle emissions standards. Globally, we estimate the mean annual total PM2.5- and O3-induced premature deaths are 139,700-170,700 for gasoline and 205,200-309,300 for diesel, with the corresponding years of life lost of 2.74-3.47 and 4.56-6.52 million years, respectively. Diesel and gasoline emissions create health-effect disparities between the developed and developing countries, which are likely to aggravate afterwards.

One-Third of Global Population at Cancer Risk due to Elevated Volatile Organic Compounds Levels

“…44 We ran the (supplemental text S1). Further details on CAM6-Chem model configuration and evaluation have been described explicitly on our previous study 5 and elsewhere. 44,[47][48][49] Health Risk Assessment…”

“…To better interpret global trends of health burdens associated with HVOC exposure, we divided the continent of the world into 11 regions 5,6 : China, India, ROA, LATIN, SSA, ECEurope, NAME, the US, Canada, WEurope and ROW. The former seven regions are classified as developing countries, while the latter four are developed countries, in accordance with the International Monetary Fund classficiation.…”

“…One recent study by Partha et al employed a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to simulate global BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes) concentrations and estimated country-level BTEX-induced preterm births in 2015. 26 Given the significant changes in global anthropogenic emissions of non-methane VOC (NMVOC) over the past two decades, 5 our study aimed to address the key knowledge gap by reporting the spatial and temporal variabilities of global surface NMVOC concentrations from 2000 to 2019 through a consistent modeling framework. Additionally, for the first time, we estimated lifetime cancer risks associated with inhalation exposure to outdoor carcinogenic VOCs (i.e., benzene, CH2O, and acetaldehyde) at the regional, national, and global scales, and identified health exposure disparities across different income nations.…”

“…Outdoor air pollution poses the greatest environmental health threat, resulting in 4-8 million premature deaths each year [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] due to exposure to fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters  2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which are key precursors of PM2.5 and O3 pollution, can have significant adverse effects on human health.…”

Examining the Summertime Ozone Formation Regime in Southeast Michigan Using MOOSE Ground‐Based HCHO/NO2 Measurements and F0AM Box Model

“…Ground‐level ozone (O 3 ) in urban areas is of great interest to regulatory and scientific agencies due to its adverse effects on human health and natural ecosystems (Avnery et al., 2011; Feng & Kobayashi, 2009; Huang et al., 2021; McDonnell et al., 1999; Neidell, 2009; Xiong et al., 2022) as well as its long atmospheric lifetime (global mean: 22 days) (Stevenson et al., 2006). Findings from extensive observational and modeling studies suggested that locally produced O 3 can be transported over distances of hundreds of kilometers from source regions, leading to transboundary and intercontinental pollution problems (Akimoto, 2003; Holloway et al., 2003; Wilkening et al., 2000; Xiong et al., 2020).…”