Long-term trends in the PM<sub>2.5</sub>- and O<sub>3</sub>-related mortality burdens in the United States under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010

Abstract

Abstract. Concentrations of both fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the United States (US) have decreased significantly since 1990, mainly because of air quality regulations. These air pollutants are associated with premature death.Here we quantify the annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US from 1990 to 2010, estimate trends and interannual variability, and evaluate the contributions to those trends from changes in pollutant concentrations, population, and 20 baseline mortality rates. We use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year simulation of air pollutant concentrations in the US from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates.From 1990 to 2010, the modeled population-weighted annual PM2.5 decreased by 39%, and summertime (April to September) 1hr average daily maximum O3 decreased by 9% from 1990 to 2010. The PM2.5-related mortality burden from ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and stroke, steadily decreased by 53% from 123,700 deaths yr 2 of 12%) than the PM2.5-related burden (4%), mainly from the inter-annual variation of O3 concentration. We conclude that air quality improvements have significantly decreased the mortality burden, avoiding roughly 35,800 (38%) PM2.5-related deaths and 4,600 (27%) O3-related deaths in 2010, compared to the case if air quality had stayed at 1990 levels.

Contributions of World Regions to the Global Tropospheric Ozone Burden Change From 1980 to 2010

“…Ozone (O 3 ) at the surface is detrimental to human health, crop yields, and ecosystems (Cooper et al., 2014; Fowler et al., 2009; Mills et al., 2018; Monks et al., 2015; Silva et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2018). Tropospheric ozone is recognized as the third most important contributor to the positive radiative forcing, based on its increases since 1750, following carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ; Myhre et al., 2013).…”