Long-term trends in the burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China over three decades: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2019

Zhang, Yang; Liu, Jiali; Han, Xiao; Jiang, Hui; Zhang, Liming; Hu, Juncong; Shi, Lei; Li, Junxiang

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.994619

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…YLDs are calculated by summing the frequency (prevalence), severity (weight of disability), and duration of a condition. The reliability of GBD data has been confirmed by previous studies [14–21].…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 82%

“…In our study, the trend observed for age change was similar to that reported in our Fourth National Oral Health Survey[25], thus suggesting the validity and reliability of the study, which used GBD data. Although there are some differences in the disease burden of edentulism in terms of gender, previous studies have shown that because edentulism is associated with many factors, more studies are needed to confirm this despite the fact that the disease burden of edentulism is known to be higher in females than in males[14]; in the present study, we found that this difference was statistically significant [14].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…In a previous study, we found that the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of Chinese adults with missing teeth were followed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019, while the standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs showed a decreasing trend [14]; this opposing trend was due to the increasing aging of the population. As population aging in China becomes further aggravated, it is important to investigate whether future changes in the trends of the rate and the standardized rate are consistent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Qin,

Chen,

Yuan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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PURPOSEThis study was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and aimed to analyze the trend of disease burden for edentulism in Chinese adults between 1990 and 2030, and to provide valuable information for the development of more effective management and preventive measures.METHODSData on Chinese adults with edentulism from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using GHDx data. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze changes in the prevalence and burden of edentulism, gender and age distribution between 1990 and 2019. In addition, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of disease burden for Chinese adults with edentulism between 2020 and 2030.RESULTSThe incidence, prevalence, and rate of YLDs in adults with edentulism in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the incidence was 251.20 per 100,000, the prevalence was 4512.78 per 100,000, and the YLDs were 123.44 per 100,000, marking increases of 20.58%, 94.18%, and 93.12% from 1990. Males experienced a higher increase than females. However, the standardized rates decreased over the same period. The ARIMA model predicts a subsequent upward and then downward trend for all indicators between 2019 and 2030, except for the standardized incidence rate which remained essentially unchanged. Specifically, the incidence is predicted to decrease from 388.93 to 314.40 per 100,000, prevalence from 4512.78 to 3049.70 per 100,000, and YLDs from 123.44 to 103.44 per 100,000. The standardized prevalence and YLDs rates are also expected to decrease.CONCLUSIONThe burden of edentulism in China is projected to show an increasing trend from 2020 to 2022 and a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2030. Despite the decline in the burden of disease associated with edentulism in China, many problems remain to be solved.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Qin,

Chen,

Yuan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that predicted the numbers and rates of IBD incidence and mortality in China in the next 25 years. Very recently, Zhang et al ( 18 ) updated the long-term trends of IBD burdens in China based on the same database GBD 2019. However, they did not provide any evaluation of future trends, which is critical for policy making.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape and predictions of inflammatory bowel disease in China: China will enter the Compounding Prevalence stage around 2030

Shao

Yang

Cao

2022

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundThis study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) over the past three decades in China and further predict the trends of IBD in the next 25 years.MethodsThe prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percentage changes of the above metrics of IBD in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The corresponding trends in the next 25 years were predicted.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the cases of IBD in China raised to 484 thousand [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 411–571] and 427 thousand (366–498) among males and females, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate of IBD increased from 1.72 per 100,000 population (1.44–2.05) to 3.35 per 100,000 population (2.88–3.88) among males and from 1.20 per 100,000 population (1.02–1.42) to 2.65 per 100,000 population (2.29–3.08) among females. The highest incidence rate occurred in people aged 35–39 years. The total YLDs attributed to IBD significantly increased, but the YLLs showed a decreasing trend, resulting in minor alterations of the DALYs. In the next 25 years, the incidence of IBD would continue to increase until a plateau by 2030, and IBD-related deaths would also increase to about 7.57 thousand by 2044 despite the decreasing age-standardized mortality rate. Similar trends were observed for both sexes, with a slight male predominance.ConclusionsAlthough China is still a low-endemic area of IBD, the prevalence and incidence of IBD dramatically increased in the past three decades. The burden of IBD in China is expected to grow continuously in the next 25 years due to the large population base and severe aging problem. China is estimated to enter the Compounding Prevalence stage around 2030.

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“…In Taiwan, the respective prevalence and incidence rates were 16.7 and 1.4 per 100,000 population in 2015 [ 27 ], and the annual percentage change in the increasing incidence of IBD from 1998 to 2008 has been estimated to be 4% to 5% [ 23 ]. In China, it was reported that the age-standardized incidence and prevalence both increased by approximately 2.5-fold within a period of 30 years from 1990 to 2019 [ 29 ]. Asian immigrants to Western countries also experience an increasing incidence of IBD [ 30 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rosiglitazone Does Not Affect the Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Taiwanese Type 2 Diabetes Patients

Tseng

2023

Pharmaceuticals

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Human studies on the effect of rosiglitazone on inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are still lacking. We investigated whether rosiglitazone might affect IBD risk by using the reimbursement database of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance to enroll a propensity-score-matched cohort of ever users and never users of rosiglitazone. The patients should have been newly diagnosed with diabetes mellitus between 1999 and 2006 and should have been alive on 1 January 2007. We then started to follow the patients from 1 January 2007 until 31 December 2011 for a new diagnosis of IBD. Propensity-score-weighted hazard ratios were estimated with regards to rosiglitazone exposure in terms of ever users versus never users and in terms of cumulative duration and cumulative dose of rosiglitazone therapy for dose–response analyses. The joint effects and interactions between rosiglitazone and risk factors of psoriasis/arthropathies, dorsopathies, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/tobacco abuse and the use of metformin were estimated by Cox regression after adjustment for all covariates. A total of 6226 ever users and 6226 never users were identified and the respective numbers of incident IBD were 95 and 111. When we compared the risk of IBD in ever users to that of the never users, the estimated hazard ratio (0.870, 95% confidence interval: 0.661–1.144) was not statistically significant. When cumulative duration and cumulative dose of rosiglitazone therapy were categorized by tertiles and hazard ratios were estimated by comparing the tertiles of rosiglitazone exposure to the never users, none of the hazard ratios reached statistical significance. In secondary analyses, rosiglitazone has a null association with Crohn’s disease, but a potential benefit on ulcerative colitis (UC) could not be excluded. However, because of the low incidence of UC, we were not able to perform detailed dose–response analyses for UC. In the joint effect analyses, only the subgroup of psoriasis/arthropathies (-)/rosiglitazone (-) showed a significantly lower risk in comparison to the subgroup of psoriasis/arthropathies (+)/rosiglitazone (-). No interactions between rosiglitazone and the major risk factors or metformin use were observed. We concluded that rosiglitazone has a null effect on the risk of IBD, but the potential benefit on UC awaits further investigation.

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Long-term trends in the burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China over three decades: A joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2019

Cited by 31 publications

References 45 publications

Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Projecting trends in the disease burden of adult edentulism in China between 2020 and 2030: a systematic study based on the global burden of disease

Landscape and predictions of inflammatory bowel disease in China: China will enter the Compounding Prevalence stage around 2030

Rosiglitazone Does Not Affect the Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Taiwanese Type 2 Diabetes Patients

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