Long-Term Rainfall Variability in the Eastern Gangetic Plain in Relation to Global Temperature Change

Yaduvanshi, Aradhana; Ranade, Ashwini

doi:10.1080/07055900.2017.1284041

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…This study has used Mann–Kendall (MK) test to detect the existence of a short-term and long term-trend in any data against the null hypothesis of no trend. Nonparametric MK test (Mann 1945 ; Kendall 1975 ) has been used widely (Araghi et al 2016 ; Yaduvanshi and Ranade 2017 ; Ayugi and Tan 2019 ), as it does not require the data to conform to any specific probability distribution, and works well even with missing or abnormal values. The significance of the dry/wet trend was tested at three different significance levels α: 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought and flood dynamics of Godavari basin, India: A geospatial perspective

Sarkar

2022

Arab J Geosci

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Assessing incidence and trends of droughts and floods can provide essential information for better water resource management, particularly in the context of ongoing climate change. The present study has examined the prevalence of drought and flood events of Godavari basin, India, for the last four decades using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) 3 months and 9 months, and their trends using Mann–Kendall’s test and Sen’s slope. The spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of drought and flood episodes in the basin are not uniform. A 20-year breakdown, 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, shows a drastic increase in drought frequency in Manjra and Pranhita sub-basins, while Godavari Upper, Indravati, and northern part of Weinganga have registered increased flood frequency. The monthly trend of SPEI-3 shows that most of the sub-basins have registered a negative trend (increasing dryness) only during the winter months, while under the SPEI-9 scenario both Manjra and Pranhita registered strong negative trend throughout the year. Sen’s slope estimations detected an increasing trend in severity from SPEI-3 to SPEI-9. Dryness severity trend is highest in Pranhita, followed by Manjra, Wardah, and Lower Godavari sub-basins, and the increasing wetness severity trend is in Upper Godavari, while rest of the sub-basins do not show any significant trend. The interior districts of the basin are more prone to the high drought conditions in near future if the current trends persist. To sustain the future climate change challenges, the vulnerable districts need urgent structural and non-structural changes in their current water resource management practices. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12517-022-10041-5.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought and flood dynamics of Godavari basin, India: A geospatial perspective

Sarkar

2022

Arab J Geosci

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“…The catchment comes under the tropical region of India. Monsoon is the adequate source of rainfall during the monsoon period from May to October [25]. Rainfall in the winter season is caused by the North East monsoon.…”

Section: Watershed Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in a Lumped and a Semi-Distributed Model for Discharge Prediction in Ghatshila Catchment

Yaduvanshi

Srivastava

Worqlul

et al. 2018

Water

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Hydrologic simulations of different models have direct impact on the accuracy of discharge prediction because of the diverse model structure. This study is an attempt to comprehend the uncertainty in discharge prediction of two models in the Ghatshila catchment, Subarnarekha Basin in India. A lumped Probability Distribution Model (PDM) and semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were applied to simulate the discharge from 24 years of records , using gridded ground based meteorological variables. The results indicate a marginal outperformance of SWAT model with 0.69 Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) for predicting discharge as compared to PDM with 0.62 NSE value. Extreme high flows are clearly depicted in the flow duration curve of SWAT model simulations. PDM model performed well in capturing low flows. However, with respect to input datasets and model complexity, SWAT requires both static and dynamic inputs for the parameterization of the model. This work is the comprehensive evaluation of discharge prediction in an Indian scenario using the selected models; ground based gridded rainfall and meteorological dataset. Uncertainty in the model prediction is established by means of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique in both of the models.

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“…(2021) studied the impact of climate change on wheat production and found that the indirect impacts (decrease in irrigation availability) of climate change are more severe than the direct impacts (changes in temperature and rainfall) on the wheat yields in IGP. In a study, Yaduvanshi and Ranade (2017) found a decrease in the long term ISMR trend over eastern IGP regions while negligible variations in annual mean rainfall. Further, in another study Bhatla et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Will Warming Climate Affect the Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extremes Over the Gangetic Plains in India?

Pant

Bhatla

Ghosh

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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The Indo‐Gangetic Plain (IGP) bears great agricultural importance and contributes to a major share of national GDP of India. In present study, a location‐specific comprehensive analysis of rainfall extremes over IGP, using second generation CORDEX‐CORE simulations in the present and future scenarios (under high emission RCP8.5 scenario) have been performed. Here, the high‐resolution CORDEX‐CORE simulations with International Centre for Theoretical Physics's regional climate model (RegCM4.7) have been considered for the detailed rainfall characteristics assessment. Twelve thresholds‐based climate indices have been analyzed to investigate the characteristics of rainfall extremes during three‐time slices: 1986–2005 (historical), 2041–2060 (near future) and 2080–2099 (far future). The RegCM4 projections suggested a substantial decline in mean Indian Summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and wet days (rainfall ≥ 1 mm; 7%–14%) over IGP under high‐emission RCP8.5 scenario. The contribution of 90th and 99th percentile days and total rainfall on wet days, seems to be get enhanced in future by 14%–35%, which implies the increase and intensification in rainfall extremes over IGP by the end of the 21st century. Further, the decline in ISMR and negligible changes in annual rainfall over IGP suggest the possible shift of monsoon regime during the later months of the year in warming climate. Thus, findings of present study may play a crucial role in predicting the ISMR and rainfall extremes over the IGP. Therefore, it can be useful for scientists and policymakers to plan and implement mitigation strategies.

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Long-Term Rainfall Variability in the Eastern Gangetic Plain in Relation to Global Temperature Change

Cited by 12 publications

References 26 publications

Drought and flood dynamics of Godavari basin, India: A geospatial perspective

Drought and flood dynamics of Godavari basin, India: A geospatial perspective

Uncertainty in a Lumped and a Semi-Distributed Model for Discharge Prediction in Ghatshila Catchment

Will Warming Climate Affect the Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extremes Over the Gangetic Plains in India?

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