Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020–2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden. Methods: We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation. Results: We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020–2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively. Conclusions: Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

Health-related quality of life in breast cancer patients in low-and-middle-income countries in Asia: a systematic review

“…This trend was also found in the East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia regions, where high-income countries (such as Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Brunei, and Israel) had significantly higher incidence rates, but lower mortality rates compared to low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) ( 4 ). The burden of breast cancer has been increasing in both high-income countries ( 5 ) and LMICs in Asia ( 4 – 6 ); however, LMICs face significant challenges as they account for 70% of deaths due to breast cancer ( 7 ). This is largely because the majority of breast cancer patients in these countries are diagnosed at advanced stages ( 4 ).…”

Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Mortality from 1999 to 2019 in Japan: An Observational Analysis

“…In Japan, the incidence of oral cancer, which accounts for the majority of HNC, is increasing [5]. Furthermore, the incidence of HNC is estimated to continue to increase in both men and women [6]. Therefore, intensive countermeasures are necessary to reduce the disease burden.…”

“…Currently available treatment methods for HNC include surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, molecularly targeted therapy, and immunotherapy. Patients with HNC typically undergo these distinct therapies in combination [6,7]. Combinatory use of chemotherapy with a monoclonal antibody targeting the epidermal growth factor receptors or immune checkpoint inhibitors comprises the standard treatment for metastatic disease [8][9][10][11][12][13].…”