Long-Term Prediction of Caspian Sea Level Under Cmip6 Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks

Hoseini, Somayyeh; Soltanpour, Mohsen

doi:10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Its current mean CSL is approximately ~28.0 m below the world ocean level. Changes in the CS's hydrological balance components, including rivers inflow (e.g., Volga, Ural, Sulak, Samur, Kura and Terek), precipitation, evaporation and outflow to Kara‐Bogaz‐Gol Bay, mainly control the CSL (Hoseini & Soltanpour, 2020). The CSL variations are not accompanied by similar hydrological changes in Central Asia.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea based on multimodel ensembles of CMIP6 projections

Hoseini,

Zolfaghari,

Soltanpour

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Caspian Sea level (CSL) is strongly sensitive to climate‐induced changes in its water balance components, especially evaporation from its surface as the main expenditure component of the Caspian Sea's (CS) water budget. Projecting evaporation and determining associated uncertainties obtained from such studies are critical for reliably predicting future CSL fluctuations and developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper studies the projected changes in evaporation from the CS using 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and Meyer's semi‐empirical formula. Future evaporation projections are constructed employing a weighted combination of the top‐ranked GCMs, including all ensemble members of selected individual models in a probabilistic framework. This study estimates late 21st century median evaporation of 945, 1016, 1105 and 1173 mm under the low‐emission, medium‐emission, medium‐to‐high emission and high‐emission scenarios, respectively. The weighted multimodel ensemble suggests CS's annual mean evaporation is projected to substantially increase by 3.9%, 13.2%, 20% and 27.9% under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively, for the late 21st century against the reference period. According to the spatial distribution of evaporation, arid eastern regions of CS experience higher evaporation than semi‐arid western and southwestern temperate regions. Additionally, the northwestern continental regions experience the least evaporation over the CS.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea based on multimodel ensembles of CMIP6 projections

Hoseini,

Zolfaghari,

Soltanpour

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The rapid rise in the water level resulted in vast flooding in coastal areas of neighboring countries. After 1995, the sea level started to decrease again to its present level of about -27.4 m. Various scenarios of recent climate change models have suggested the future water levels between -28 m and -26 m by 2050 (Hoseini and Soltanpour 2020). Literature shows a number of developed models to estimate shoreline changes and cross-shore beach profiles under water level fluctuations.…”

Section: Study Area and Field Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of Cross-Shore Profiles at South Coasts of the Caspian Sea Under Rapid Changes in Water Level

Enayati,

Soltanpour,

Shibayama

et al. 2023

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Coastal zone management needs the prediction of the changes in shoreline and coastal profiles, where the fluctuation of sea water level plays an essential role. Climate change and human activities have accelerated the fluctuation/falling of water levels in lakes and enclosed water basins. Using satellite images and cross-shore beach profiles at twelve monitoring stations along the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, the effect of the rapid fall of water level on the nearshore morphology is studied in this research. Radiometric and atmospheric corrections are made on satellite images, and the NDWI index is used to increase the accuracy of the shoreline extraction. Comparing the accuracy of different methods, it is concluded that the Hands (1984) formula relatively better predicts the shoreline advancement rate due to lowering water level.

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Long-Term Prediction of Caspian Sea Level Under Cmip6 Scenarios Using Artificial Neural Networks

Cited by 2 publications

References 18 publications

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea based on multimodel ensembles of CMIP6 projections

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in evaporation from the Caspian Sea based on multimodel ensembles of CMIP6 projections

Study of Cross-Shore Profiles at South Coasts of the Caspian Sea Under Rapid Changes in Water Level

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