Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Kretchun, Alec M.; Scheller, Robert M.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Soderquist, B.; Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Link, Timothy E.; Strand, Eva K.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118005

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Aspens have declined gradually over the past century, with additional diebacks in recent years (Rehfeldt et al, 2009). The causes are diverse but include changes in patterns of fire, ungulate browsing, competition with conifers, snowpack, drought, and temperature (Anderegg et al, 2013; Coop et al, 2014; Kretchun et al, 2020; Rogers et al, 2013; Rogers et al, 2014; Seager et al, 2013; Shinneman et al, 2013; Yang et al, 2015). A number of studies now predict that declines will accelerate as climate change deepens (Anderegg et al, 2013; Rehfeldt et al, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐driven thermal opportunities and risks for leaf miners in aspen canopies

Woods

Legault

Kingsolver

et al. 2022

Ecological Monographs

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In tree canopies, incoming solar radiation interacts with leaves and branches to generate temperature differences within and among leaves, presenting thermal opportunities and risks for leaf‐dwelling ectotherms. Although leaf biophysics and insect thermal ecology are well understood, few studies have examined them together in single systems. We examined temperature variability in aspen canopies, Populus tremuloides, and its consequences for a common herbivore, the leaf‐mining caterpillar Phyllocnistis populiella. We shaded leaves in the field and measured effects on leaf temperature and larval growth and survival. We also estimated larval thermal performance curves for feeding and growth and measured upper lethal temperatures. Sunlit leaves directly facing the incoming rays reached the highest temperatures, typically 3–8°C above ambient air temperature. Irradiance‐driven increases in temperature, however, were transient enough that they did not alter observed growth rates of leaf miners. Incubator and ramping experiments suggested that larval performance peaks between 25 and 32°C and declines to zero between 35 and 40°C, depending on the duration of temperature exposure. Upper lethal temperatures during 1‐h heat shocks were 42–43°C. When larvae were active in early spring, temperatures generally were low enough to depress rates of feeding and growth below their maxima, and only rarely did estimated mine temperatures rise beyond optimal temperatures. Observed leaf or mine temperatures never approached larval upper lethal temperatures. At this site during our experiments, larvae thus appeared to have a significant thermal safety margin; the more pressing problem was inadequate heat. Detailed information on mine temperatures and larval performance curves, however, allowed us to leverage long‐term data sets on air temperature to estimate potential future shifts in performance and longer‐term risks to larvae from lethally high temperatures. This analysis suggests that, in the past 20 years, larval performance has often been limited by cold and that the risk of heat stress has been low. Future warming will raise mean rates of feeding and growth but also the risk of exposure to injuriously or lethally high temperatures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐driven thermal opportunities and risks for leaf miners in aspen canopies

Woods

Legault

Kingsolver

et al. 2022

Ecological Monographs

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“…This difference directly affects waterlimited processes such as weathering or plant species distribution. In Johnston Draw, this is clearly visible: aspen stands are located directly below snowdrifts (Kretchun et al, 2020), and sagebrush dominates the rest of the catchment. Because snowdrifts drive the spatial pattern of SWI, it is crucial to quantify wind-driven redistribution processes as well as capture aspect and elevation-driven processes, even at the rainsnow transition zone.…”

Section: Spatial Variability In Swimentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of spatial and temporal variability in surface water inputs on streamflow generation and cessation in the rain–snow transition zone

Kiewiet

Trujillo

Hedrick

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate change affects precipitation phase, which can propagate into changes in streamflow timing and magnitude. This study examines how the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and snowmelt affects discharge in rain–snow transition zones. These zones experience large year-to-year variations in precipitation phase, cover a significant area of mountain catchments globally, and might extend to higher elevations under future climate change. We used observations from 11 weather stations and snow depths measured from one aerial lidar survey to force a spatially distributed snowpack model (iSnobal/Automated Water Supply Model) in a semiarid, 1.8 km2 headwater catchment. We focused on surface water input (SWI; the summation of rainfall and snowmelt on the soil) for 4 years with contrasting climatological conditions (wet, dry, rainy, and snowy) and compared simulated SWI to measured discharge. A strong spatial agreement between snow depth from the lidar survey and model (r2 = 0.88) was observed, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.65 for simulated and measured snow depths at snow depth stations for all modeled years (0.75 for normalized snow depths). The spatial pattern of SWI was consistent between the 4 years, with north-facing slopes producing 1.09–1.25 times more SWI than south-facing slopes, and snowdrifts producing up to 6 times more SWI than the catchment average. Annual discharge in the catchment was not significantly correlated with the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; instead, it was correlated with the magnitude of precipitation and spring snow and rain. Stream cessation depended on total and spring precipitation, as well as on the melt-out date of the snowdrifts. These results highlight the importance of the heterogeneity of SWI at the rain–snow transition zone for streamflow generation and cessation, and emphasize the need for spatially distributed modeling or monitoring of both snowpack and rainfall dynamics.

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“…Although aspen might otherwise replace conifers (e.g., black spruce) in response to shifting fire regimes, loss of snowpack (Kretchun et al., 2020 ) and/or moisture stress (Barber et al., 2018 ) may prevent aspen from dominating and favor grasses instead. Grassland habitat is expected to expand, shifting the ecotone between grassland and forest and fragmenting Canadian forests (Barber et al., 2018 ).…”

Section: Shifts In Dominant Vegetation Associated With Changing Wildfire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Jager

Long

Malison

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire‐adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2‐dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more‐frequent, lower‐severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less‐frequent high‐severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less‐severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no‐analog future.

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Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Cited by 6 publications

References 57 publications

Climate‐driven thermal opportunities and risks for leaf miners in aspen canopies

Climate‐driven thermal opportunities and risks for leaf miners in aspen canopies

Effects of spatial and temporal variability in surface water inputs on streamflow generation and cessation in the rain–snow transition zone

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

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