Long‐term pattern of population dynamics in the field vole from central Europe: cyclic pattern with amplitude dampening

Abstract

The subject of population cycles is regarded as controversial due to a number of unsettled questions such as whether or not cyclic patterns are governed by the same processes at high and low latitudes in Europe. Recent evidence suggests that the dynamics at high and low latitudes share the common temporal pattern of vole dynamics referred to as collapsing population cycles. Despite concurrent interest, the key contention around the causal mechanisms that drive population cycles remains a hot topic in ecology. The aims of this study are to supplement information on the seasonal population dynamics of the field vole Microtus agrestis in the Czech Republic by analysing 25 years of time series data. By applying robust estimation procedures, we estimated several parameters to describe population dynamics, such as population variability, amplitude dampening, cycle period, order of the dynamics and the structure of density dependence. The parameters indicate that field vole dynamics in central Europe are highly variable, cyclic dynamics of order two, with peaks in abundance occurring regularly at intervals of 4–5 years. In addition to exhibiting population cycles, the field vole populations show a pattern of dampened amplitude as observed elsewhere in Europe, including northern latitudes. By analysing temporal trends in seasonal abundances, population growth rates and environmental temperatures, we did not obtain evidence to support the hypothesis that amplitude dampening results from the negative effect of increasingly mild winters on winter population growth rates.

The Common Buzzard Buteo buteo Population in a Changing Environment, Central Poland as a Case Study

“…Our results showed important changes in the diet composition of the common buzzard in the last 30 years, which were the result of changes in rodent availability, mainly a decrease in the abundance of voles of Microtus genus, and dampening of their population cycles. Such a collapse in vole cycles was reported in many countries [51][52][53][54], including North-Eastern and Western Poland [55], and referred to Microtus arvalis, M. agrestis and M. oeconomus [55,56]. The reasons for this are not fully explained, yet they are usually connected to climatic changes [57,58] (but see Reference [59]).…”

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

“…; Gouveia et al . ). General principles of consumer‐resource theory may help predict the effects of long‐term climatic changes on population cycles (O’Connor et al .…”

“…For small mammal species, such as voles, climate change has decreased population size during the peaks of the cycle due to changes in winter growth rates (Cornulier et al 2013). Warm winters generate melt-frost events at northern latitudes, which result in less favourable conditions for herbivores accessing their food through the frozen bottom snow layers (Ims et al 2008;Kausrud et al 2008), although these results are not unequivocal (Korpela et al 2013;Gouveia et al 2015). General principles of consumerresource theory may help predict the effects of long-term climatic changes on population cycles (O'Connor et al 2011) and, more generally, food web dynamics (Gilbert et al 2014).…”

Tawny owl prey remains indicate differences in the dynamics of coastal and inland vole populations in southern Finland

“…This is in accordance with some earlier findings (Solonen and Karhunen 2002;Solonen 2004Solonen , 2006. However, there are studies (Tkadlec et al 2006;Hoset et al 2009;Brommer et al 2010;Korpela et al 2013;Gouveia et al 2015) which have shown a positive or a non-significant relationship between a mild winter and vole population size in the following spring. The present results suggest that the discrepancy between the results of some studies may be due to the differences in the thickness of the snow cover between areas or years considered, as well as between the periods of winter time examined.…”