Long-term pathways analysis to assess the feasibility of sustainable land-use and food systems in Mexico

Abstract

Mexico aims to develop highly productive and sustainable food systems that ensure national self-sufficiency. This paper employs an integrated land-use modeling tool—the FABLE Calculator—to estimate the degree of policy ambition required for the country to meet mid-century climate, conservation and production goals in the land-use sector. We generate national-level land-use pathways to mid-century in terms of agricultural production, land use change dynamics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and availability of land supporting biodiversity under varying assumptions of national policy and productivity changes. We estimate the effects of plausible efforts to achieve sustainability in land-use and food systems to 2050 against a business-as-usual benchmark. In the sustainable pathway, assumptions on agricultural land expansion, reforestation, and protected area expansion reflect existing and aspirational Mexican government policies aiming to improve crop yields, livestock productivity with silvopastoral systems, and GHG mitigation goals. We also model diets that evolve toward Mexican dietary guidelines for a healthier consumption of fats and oils as well as a substantial increase in the intake of fruits and vegetables, pulses, nuts, and fish. Results suggest that Mexico can feasibly adopt a sustainable land-use pathway that provides adequate nutrition for the population by 2050, limit agricultural expansion, reduce GHG emissions, and expand forested lands. This type of integrated land-use modeling can help ensure policy coherence in land and food systems across national strategic plans for climate, biodiversity, and agricultural self-sufficiency, each spearheaded by different government agencies. Importantly, a sensitivity analysis highlights the transformative impact that diets have on land-use systems, and as such, dietary transformation should be considered in all climate mitigation plans.

Integrated modeling to achieve global goals: lessons from the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative

“…In all countries, restoring more land to nature requires reducing the area used for other purposes, principally agriculture. FABLE's work shows that the best strategies for achieving this are shifting diets toward less land-intensive foods, and increasing crop and livestock productivity, freeing up land for restoration (Frank et al 2022;González-Abraham et al 2022;Jha et al 2022;Lehtonen and Rämö, 2022;Navarro Garcia et al 2022;Perez-Guzman et al 2022;Rasche et al 2022;Smith and Harrison et al 2022;Zerriffi et al 2022). Of note, some restoration efforts to date have promoted single or exotic species which do little to restore native ecosystem functioning.…”

“…In addition, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE, and the FABLE Calculator do not consider the biodiversity conservation and carbon storage and sequestration potential of agricultural land. Several authors point out that further work is needed to incorporate the contribution of improved agricultural land management to sustainability targets, such as zero-chemical agroecological practices and low-intensity livestock systems that incorporate trees and other natural vegetation covers (González-Abraham et al 2022;Smith and Harrison et al 2022). Such practices are likely to form a core part of sustainable futures particularly in countries with high pressure on land-use and little remaining natural land.…”

The Impact of Optimizing Industrial Energy Efficiency on Agricultural Development in OECD Countries

“…Dong and Wang, [22] evaluated the degree and scope of the impact of air pollution on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in 146 countries worldwide from 2010 to 2019, and it was found that for every 1% increase in the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone (O3), agricultural TFP decreases by 0.104% and 0.207%, respectively. González-Abraham et al [23] stated that in order to achieve climate, conservation, and production goals, the Mexican government used an integrated land use model to predict policy aspirations for policy changes and productivity improvements. This study predicts land use and greenhouse gas emissions under various policy and productivity changes.…”

Food System vs. Sustainability: An Incompatible Relationship in Mexico

“…In addition, the country is currently experiencing the worst environmental crisis ever reported [7,8], which has been repeatedly associated with the current food systems and their unsustainability [9]. Food systems comprise a comprehensive spectrum of stakeholders and their interconnected value-enhancing endeavors in producing, aggregating, processing, distributing, consuming, and disposing of food items derived from agriculture, forestry, or fisheries.…”

“…Food systems generate over a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), driving over 90% of global water scarcity [9,11,12]. In addition, agriculture and livestock production have been and remain the leading causes of deforestation [9,13,14], and the country has experienced a biodiversity loss of around 30% in tropical and forest zones of the country [15]. In addition, the lack of regulation in agrochemical use has caused severe water quality issues and further health-related problems in the population [11,16].…”