Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Eyring, Veronika; Arblaster, Julie M.; Cionni, Irene; Sedláčék, Jan; Perlwitz, Judith; Young, Paul; Bekki, Slimane; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, William; Faluvegi, G.; Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Horowitz, Larry W.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Marsh, Daniel R.; Saint‐Martin, David; Shindell, D. T.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Watanabe, Shingo

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316

Cited by 271 publications

(381 citation statements)

References 185 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

350

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Haigh and Pyle, 1982;Jonsson et al, 2004;Austin et al, 2010;Eyring et al, 2013;Meul et al, 2014). Insight into the impact of methane changes, which are not explored here, can also be garnered from previous literature (Randeniya et al, 2002;Stenke and Grewe, 2005;Portmann and Solomon, 2007;Fleming et al, 2011;Revell et al, 2012).…”

Section: Stratospheric Additivitymentioning

confidence: 95%

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office's Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in (a) greenhouse gases and climate, (b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and (c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposes the effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden.The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τ O 3 ) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τ O 3 simulated under reductions in ODSs and ozone precursor emissions.The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs.

show abstract

Section: Stratospheric Additivitymentioning

confidence: 95%

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With the continued implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments, a recovery of the ozone hole and the disappearance of the Antarctic ozone hole is projected to occur by the end of the century. However, there is a large uncertainty in estimates of the rate and timing of this recovery (Eyring et al, 2013;WMO, 2014). Accurate projections of the timing of recovery are critical, as they will further reshape Southern Hemisphere climate and weather (Polvani et al, 2011;Gerber and Son, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CCMs used for assessments of stratospheric ozone loss (e.g. Eyring et al, 2013) often employ rather simple heterogeneous chemistry schemes. The simpler schemes are frequently based on nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), although it is known that heterogeneous chemistry on super-cooled ternary solution (STS) and on cold binary aerosol particles probably dominates polar chlorine activations (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-wavelength classification method for polar stratospheric cloud types using infrared limb spectra

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument on board the ESA Envisat satellite operated from July 2002 until April 2012. The infrared limb emission measurements represent a unique dataset of daytime and night-time observations of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) up to both poles. Cloud detection sensitivity is comparable to space-borne lidars, and it is possible to classify different cloud types from the spectral measurements in different atmospheric windows regions.Here we present a new infrared PSC classification scheme based on the combination of a well-established two-colour ratio method and multiple 2-D brightness temperature difference probability density functions. The method is a simple probabilistic classifier based on Bayes' theorem with a strong independence assumption. The method has been tested in conjunction with a database of radiative transfer model calculations of realistic PSC particle size distributions, geometries, and composition. The Bayesian classifier distinguishes between solid particles of ice and nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), as well as liquid droplets of super-cooled ternary solution (STS).The classification results are compared to coincident measurements from the space-borne lidar Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument over the temporal overlap of both satellite missions (June 2006-March 2012. Both datasets show a good agreement for the specific PSC classes, although the viewing geometries and the vertical and horizontal resolution are quite different. Discrepancies are observed between the CALIOP and the MI-PAS ice class. The Bayesian classifier for MIPAS identifies substantially more ice clouds in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex than CALIOP. This disagreement is attributed in part to the difference in the sensitivity on mixed-type clouds. Ice seems to dominate the spectral behaviour in the limb infrared spectra and may cause an overestimation in ice occurrence compared to the real fraction of ice within the PSC area in the polar vortex.The entire MIPAS measurement period was processed with the new classification approach. Examples like the detection of the Antarctic NAT belt during early winter, and its possible link to mountain wave events over the Antarctic Peninsula, which are observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, highlight the importance of a climatology of 9 Southern Hemisphere and 10 Northern Hemisphere winters in total. The new dataset is valuable both for detailed process studies, and for comparisons with and improvements of the PSC parameterizations used in chemistry transport and climate models.

show abstract

“…The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts -Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model was one of the first community models with this capability . For the first time, some of the Earth system models (ESMs) with interactive oceans participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al, 2011) had interactive chemistry (Eyring et al, 2013a;Flato et al, 2013). The World Meteorological Organization -United Nations Environment Programme (WMO/UNEP) "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010" (World Meteorological Organisation, 2011) also featured several stratospheric models that included tropospheric chemistry, and one model with a coupled ocean.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts -Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations , hindcast simulations with specified dynamics , i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations . The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging setups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.

show abstract

Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Cited by 271 publications

References 185 publications

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

A multi-wavelength classification method for polar stratospheric cloud types using infrared limb spectra

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About