Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lingli; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2014.12.017

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…A very important application is the spacecraft re-entry, since some objects are massive in size and high-temperature resistant, and the re-entry may cause structural, environmental and safety issues on the Earth's surface. Recently, the re-entry of China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft draws much attention to accurately predicting the uncontrolled trajectories [1]. Six degrees of freedom (DoF) orbit model is the standard model describing this problem [2,3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accurate predictions of chaotic motion of a free fall disk

Xu,

Li,

et al. 2021

Preprint

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It is important to know the accurate trajectory of a free fall object in fluid (such as a spacecraft), whose motion might be chaotic in many cases. However, it is impossible to accurately predict its chaotic trajectory in a long enough duration by traditional numerical algorithms in double precision. In this paper, we give the accurate predictions of the same problem by a new strategy, namely the Clean Numerical Simulation (CNS). Without loss of generality, a free fall disk in water is considered, whose motion is governed by the Andersen-Pesavento-Wang model. We illustrate that convergent and reliable trajectories of a chaotic free fall disk in a long enough interval of time can be obtained by means of the CNS, but different traditional algorithms in double precision give disparate trajectories. Besides, unlike the traditional algorithms in double precision, the CNS can predict the accurate posture of the free fall disk near the vicinity of the bifurcation point of some physical parameters in a long duration. Therefore, the CNS can provide reliable prediction of chaotic systems in a long enough interval of time.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accurate predictions of chaotic motion of a free fall disk

Xu,

Li,

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The error in the a priori atmospheric model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, can induce a semi-major axis error up to a few kilometers and an overall position error to several thousand kilometers [9]. Tang et al [9] carried out orbit prediction with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km using the mean atmosphere model averaged from the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model 2001 NRLMSISE00 atmospheric density model, and several 20-day prediction tests show that semi-major axis errors are better than 700 m and overall position errors are better than 400 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, can induce a semi-major axis error up to a few kilometers and an overall position error to several thousand kilometers [9]. Tang et al [9] carried out orbit prediction with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km using the mean atmosphere model averaged from the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model 2001 NRLMSISE00 atmospheric density model, and several 20-day prediction tests show that semi-major axis errors are better than 700 m and overall position errors are better than 400 km. Meng [1] solved the orbit differential equation based on the Adams-Cowell method using variable-step integration with the Jacchia 1971 atmospheric density model, introducing position and velocity interpolation formulas to improve efficiency for predicting high density ephemeris, and test results indicated that the position error was better than 500 m during a 7-day period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Precise Orbit Predictions for a HY-2A Satellite with Three Atmospheric Density Models Based on Dynamic Method

et al. 2018

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HY-2A (Haiyang 2A) is the first altimetry satellite in China, and it was designed to be in a repeated ground track orbit to achieve the mission targets. Maneuvers are necessary to keep the satellite on the designed orbit according to the dynamic precise orbital prediction. Atmospheric density models are essential for predicting the low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, such as HY-2A. Nevertheless, it is a complex process to determine the optimal atmospheric density model for orbit prediction. In this paper, short-term and long-term orbit predictions based on the dynamic method using three different atmospheric density models are tested. Detailed comparisons and evaluation of the accuracy of the predicted results are performed. Furthermore, to assess the results for the ground tracking of the satellite, the interpolation method especially for a spherical surface is introduced. The results show that among the three models, the Jacchia 1971 model is in the closest agreement with Multi-Mission Ground Segment for Altimetry precise positioning and Orbitography (SSALTO) precise orbits. The root-mean-squares (RMSs) of radial orbit differences between the predicted and precise orbits are 0.016 m, 0.091 m, 0.176 m, 0.573 m, and 1.421 m for predicted 1-h, 12-h, 1-day, 3-day, and 7-day arcs, respectively.

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Analysis of Tiangong-2 orbit determination and prediction using onboard dual-frequency GNSS data

Shao

et al. 2019

GPS Solut

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Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

Cited by 9 publications

References 22 publications

Accurate predictions of chaotic motion of a free fall disk

Accurate predictions of chaotic motion of a free fall disk

Analysis of Precise Orbit Predictions for a HY-2A Satellite with Three Atmospheric Density Models Based on Dynamic Method

Analysis of Tiangong-2 orbit determination and prediction using onboard dual-frequency GNSS data

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