Long-term monitoring of tropical bats for anthropogenic impact assessment: Gauging the statistical power to detect population change

Meyer, Christoph F. J.; Aguiar, Ludmilla M. S.; Aguirre, Luís F.; Baumgarten, Júlio; Clarke, Frank M.; Cosson, Jean‐François; Villegas, Sergio Estrada; Fahr, Jakob; Faria, Deborah; Furey, Neil M.; Henry, Mickaël; Hodgkison, Robert; Jenkins, Richard K. B.; Jung, Kirsten; Kingston, Tigga; Kunz, Thomas; González, Marcela Hebe; Moya, Isabel Izquierdo; Pons, Jean‐Marc; Racey, Paul A.; Rex, Katja; Sampaio, Erica M.; Stoner, Kathryn E.; Voigt, Christian C.; Staden, Dietrich von; Weise, Christa D.; Kalko, Elisabeth K. V.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.07.029

Cited by 67 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For example, it might be expected that the species is less temperature restricted in warmer climates and consequently lower effort is needed. Furthermore, if the monitoring covers a large area, more variability between sites is likely to be expected and therefore more transects should be selected (Meyer et al 2010;Pollock et al 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A higher number of transects only slightly improves the power (cfr. Meyer et al 2010). However, it is also important to take into account the costs for selecting and installing additional transects and finding and training volunteers (cfr.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, it is believed that sampling methods were sufficiently consistent to provide reliable and comparable estimates of temporal variation in population abundance when the duration of the transect walk is used as offset. A similar method of combining monitoring data was used by Meyer et al (2010). Weather data (air temperature, rain, wind, relative humidity and air pressure) during the transect walks were compiled from nearby weather stations (Basel: Lufthygieneamt …”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A threshold of 90% has been repeatedly suggested for reliable trend detection (e.g. Meyer et al 2010;Steidl et al 1997) in order to balance type II and type I errors (Di Stefano 2003). The median absolute bias on the trend estimation (MAB) for each scenario was also calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the trend estimation.…”

Section: Statistical Power Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus

Thomaes¹,

Verschelde²,

Mader³

et al. 2017

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Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density. Few statistical power analyses of declining trends have been published for terrestrial invertebrates. Consequently, no knowledge exists of the success rate of monitoring elusive invertebrates. Here data from monitoring transects of the European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is used to investigate whether the population trend of this elusive species can be adequately monitored. Data from studies in UK, Switzerland and Germany were compiled to parameterize a simulation model explaining the stag beetle abundance as a function of temperature and seasonality. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effort needed to detect a population abundance decline of 1%/year over a period of 12 years. To reveal such a decline, at least 240 1-hour transect walks on 40 to 100 transects need to be implemented in weekly intervals during warm evenings. It is concluded that monitoring of stag beetles is feasible and the effort is not greater than that which has been found for other invertebrates. Based on this example, it is assumed that many other elusive species with similar life history traits can be monitored with moderate efforts. As saproxylic invertebrates account for a large share of the forest biodiversity, although many are elusive, it is proposed that at least some flagship species are included in monitoring programmes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Power Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus

Thomaes¹,

Verschelde²,

Mader³

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We also evaluated power to detect shifts in the group average peak dates for the focal species, each migratory guild, and all passerines as a group. We used simulation to assess power to detect temporal trends (Purcell et al 2005, Nielsen et al 2009, Meyer et al 2010). We simulated a time series where the true starting peak date was what we estimated from occupancy modeling.…”

Section: Power Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%