Long-term magmatic evolution reveals the beginning of a new caldera cycle at Campi Flegrei

Abstract

The Campi Flegrei magma reservoir is entering a new built-up phase that may culminate in the future in a caldera-forming eruption.

Magma Chamber Growth During Intercaldera Periods: Insights From Thermo‐Mechanical Modeling With Applications to Laguna del Maule, Campi Flegrei, Santorini, and Aso

“…Stock et al, 2018). The most recent eruption of Monte Nuovo in 1538 continued on this trend (870-920°C and 5-7 wt%; Forni et al, 2018).…”

“…Following the CI eruption at ~39 ka, magma storage conditions were relatively hot (1,000–1,090 °C), dry (3–5 wt% water), and mafic, evolving to colder (880–930 °C) and wetter conditions (5–7 wt% water) just prior to the eruption of the NYT (Forni et al, ). After the NYT, the reservoir become once again hot, dry, and mafic (1,070–1,130 °C with 0.2–3.5 wt% water), progressing to colder and wetter conditions throughout the first, second, and third epochs (900–1080 °C and 3–6 wt%; Forni et al, ; M. Stock et al, ). The most recent eruption of Monte Nuovo in 1538 continued on this trend (870–920 °C and 5–7 wt%; Forni et al, ).…”

“…After the NYT, the reservoir become once again hot, dry, and mafic (1,070–1,130 °C with 0.2–3.5 wt% water), progressing to colder and wetter conditions throughout the first, second, and third epochs (900–1080 °C and 3–6 wt%; Forni et al, ; M. Stock et al, ). The most recent eruption of Monte Nuovo in 1538 continued on this trend (870–920 °C and 5–7 wt%; Forni et al, ).…”

“…In other words, an eruption may be triggered if τ in < τ relax and τ in < τ cool . However, eruptions also may be triggered by the exsolution of magmatic volatiles during crystallization and second boiling (Black & Manga, ; Blake, ; Forni et al, ; M. J. Stock et al, ; Tait et al, ), which generally would occur when τ cool < τ in and τ cool < τ relax .…”

“…These caldera-forming events can occur multiple times at the same volcano but typically happen infrequently, separated by tens to hundreds of thousands of years (Bevilacqua et al, 2018;Christiansen, 2001;Druitt & Francaviglia, 1992;Kaneko et al, 2007;Orsi et al, 1996;Wilson et al, 1995). Following large caldera-forming events, eruptions tend to be smaller volume and higher frequency, indicating a significant reduction in chamber size (Degruyter et al, 2016;Forni et al, 2018;Parks et al, 2012;Singer et al, 2014). In this study, we focus on how small-volume postcaldera magma chambers grow to the sizes that host catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions, with a particular interest in the following questions: What controls the growth rates of magma chambers and the time between catastrophic calderaforming events?…”