Salmonella targets and enters epithelial cells at permissive entry sites: some cells are more likely to be infected than others. However, the parameters that lead to host cell heterogeneity are not known. Here, we quantitatively characterized host cell vulnerability to Salmonella infection based on imaged parameters. We performed successive infections of the same host cell population followed by automated high-throughput microscopy and observed that infected cells have a higher probability of being reinfected. Establishing a predictive model, we identified two combined origins of host cell vulnerability: pathogen-induced cellular vulnerability emerging from Salmonella uptake and persisting at later stages of the infection and host cell-inherent vulnerability. We linked the host cell-inherent vulnerability with its morphological attributes, such as local cell crowding, and with host cell cholesterol content. This showed that the probability of Salmonella infection success can be forecast from morphological or molecular host cell parameters.KEYWORDS Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, cooperative behavior, cell vulnerability, single-cell heterogeneity, mathematical modeling S almonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) is a Gram-negative bacterium that causes enteric diseases in many vertebrates after ingestion of contaminated food or water. Salmonellosis is one of the most common causes of foodborne diseases in humans and is considered to be major public health and global economic problem (1). After oral uptake, more than 99% of S. Typhimurium bacteria are killed in the stomach or in the gut (2). The surviving bacteria reach the distal ileum where they invade nonphagocytic intestinal epithelial cells (3). In vitro experiments have shown that S. Typhimurium invasion of host cells occurs after a phase of bacterial near-surface swimming (NSS) on the epithelial layer. The bacteria scan the surface and eventually stop and dock at a selected host cell (4, 5). Docking is irreversible (6) and is followed by injection of Salmonella effectors into the host cell through a type 3 secretion system (T3SS), leading to the formation of ruffles that engulf the incoming bacterium (7,8). Upon internalization S. Typhimurium either develops inside a Salmonella-containing vacuole (SCV), or it ruptures the SCV to escape into the cytoplasm where the pathogen replicates at a high rate, a phenomenon called hyperreplication (HR) (9, 10).The mechanism by which S. Typhimurium targets specific host cellular sites for its entry remains open to debate. Santos and colleagues suggested that mitotic cells are selected due to increased cholesterol accumulation at the cell surface during metaphase (11). In contrast, Misselwitz and colleagues proposed that physical obstacles and