Long-term greenhouse gas emission and petroleum reduction goals: Evolutionary pathways for the light-duty vehicle sector

Kromer, Matthew; Bandivadekar, Anup; Evans, Christopher

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2009.10.006

Cited by 60 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Doubling the fuel economy by 2030 is also challenging, but more feasible since the auto industry will have more lead time to respond (Bandivadekar et al 2008). Potential future car technologies include varied energy sources and materials, which are being developed in order to make automobiles more energy efficient with reduced regulated emissions (Bandivadekar et al 2008;Cheah et al 2009;Heywood 2010;Kromer et al 2010;Cheah and Heywood 2011;Bastani et al 2012). A variety of propulsion technologies and fuels have the promise to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.…”

Section: Future Transportation Vehiclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unconventional Energy Sources

Demırbas

2016

Waste Energy for Life Cycle Assessment

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Section: Future Transportation Vehiclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unconventional Energy Sources

Demırbas

2016

Waste Energy for Life Cycle Assessment

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“…In general, the role of EVs in the reduction of the LC impacts of a vehicle fleet over time is only one of the many options assessed. Although some studies addressed different scenarios for the electricity mix (EPRI 2007;Kromer et al 2010;Keoleian et al 2011;Reichmuth et al 2013) and included technology improvements over time, such as fuel economy improvements (Reichmuth et al 2013) and vehicle lightweighting (Cheah and Heywood 2011), the integration of all these aspects in the analysis of the potential of EVs to reduce fleet LC impacts has not been fully explored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The assessment of the LC environmental impacts of the introduction of vehicle technologies in existing fleets has been addressed by several authors through scenario analysis, with mainly two objectives: (i) to assess the overall reduction in the environmental impacts achieved by implementing different technology/fuel pathways (e.g., Bandivadekar et al 2008;Baptista et al 2012;Bodek and Heywood 2008;Kromer et al 2010;Reichmuth et al 2013);and (ii) to define pathways that allow achieving certain emission reduction targets (e.g., Cheah and Heywood 2011;Melaina and Webster 2011). Most studies were performed for the USA or regions within the USA (EPRI 2007;Bandivadekar et al 2008;Plotkin and Singh 2009;Keoleian et al 2011;Bastani et al 2012a;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic fleet-based life-cycle greenhouse gas assessment of the introduction of electric vehicles in the Portuguese light-duty fleet

Garcia

Gregory

Freire

2015

Int J Life Cycle Assess

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Purpose Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector is the goal of several current policies and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are seen as one option to achieve this goal. However, the introduction of BEVs in the fleet is gradual and their benefits will depend on how they compare with increasingly more energy-efficient internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The aim of this article is to assess whether displacing ICEVs by BEVs in the Portuguese light-duty fleet is environmentally beneficial (focusing on GHG emissions), taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet. Methods A dynamic fleet-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the Portuguese light-duty fleet was performed, addressing life-cycle (LC) GHG emissions through 2030 across different scenarios. A model was developed, integrating: (i) a vehicle stock sub-model of the Portuguese light-duty fleet; and (ii) dynamic LC sub-models of three vehicle technologies (gasoline ICEV, diesel ICEV and BEV). Two metrics were analyzed: (i) Total fleet LC GHG emissions (in Mton CO 2 eq); and (ii) Fleet LC GHG emissions per kilometer (in g CO 2 eq/km). A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of different parameters in the results and ranking of scenarios.Results and discussion The model baseline projected a reduction of 30-39 % in the 2010-2030 fleet LC GHG emissions depending on the BEV fleet penetration rate and ICEV fuel consumption improvements. However, for BEV introduction in the fleet to be beneficial compared to an increasingly more efficient ICEV fleet, a high BEV market share and electricity emission factor similar or lower to the current mix (485 g CO 2 eq/kWh) need to be realized; these conclusions hold for the different conditions analyzed. Results were also sensitive to parameters that affect the fleet composition, such as those that change the vehicle stock, the scrappage rate, and the activity level of the fleet (11-19 % variation in GHG emissions in 2030), which are seldom assessed in the LCA of vehicles. The influence of these parameters also varies over time, becoming more important as time passes. These effects can only be captured by assessing Total fleet GHG emissions over time as opposed to the GHG emissions per kilometer metric. Conclusions These results emphasize the importance of taking into account the dynamic behavior of the fleet, technology improvements over time, and changes in vehicle operation and background processes during the vehicle service life when assessing the potential benefits of displacing ICEVs by BEVs.

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“…Historical studies, however, suggest caution regarding the rates of penetration and diffusion of alternative technologies (Kromer et al, 2010). Incremental refinements of established technologies and modular innovations tend to be significantly lower in cost and also diffuse more rapidly (Schäfer et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing automotive emissions—The potentials of combustion engine technologies and the power of policy

2012

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Reducing transport emissions, in particular vehicular emissions, is a key element for mitigating the risks of climate change. In much of the academic and public discourse the focus has been on alternative vehicle technologies and fuels (e.g. electric cars, fuel cells and hydrogen), whereas vehicles based on internal combustion engines have been perceived as close to their development limits. This paper offers a different perspective by demonstrating the accelerated improvement processes taking place in established combustion technologies as a result of a new competition between manufacturers and technologies, encouraged both by more stringent EU legislation and new CAFE levels in the US. The short-term perspective is complemented by an analysis of future improvement potentials in internal combustion technologies, which may be realized if efficient regulation is in place. Based on a comparison of four different regulatory approaches, the paper identifies the need for a long-term technology-neutral framework with stepwise increasing stringencies, arguing that this will encourage continual innovation and diffusion in the most effective way.

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Long-term greenhouse gas emission and petroleum reduction goals: Evolutionary pathways for the light-duty vehicle sector

Cited by 60 publications

References 19 publications

Unconventional Energy Sources

Unconventional Energy Sources

Dynamic fleet-based life-cycle greenhouse gas assessment of the introduction of electric vehicles in the Portuguese light-duty fleet

Reducing automotive emissions—The potentials of combustion engine technologies and the power of policy

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