Long-Term Evolution in Noctilucent Clouds’ Response to the Solar Cycle: A Model-Based Study

Abstract

Noctilucent clouds (NLC) are sensitive indicators in the upper mesosphere, reflecting changes in the background atmosphere. Studying NLC responses to the solar cycle is important for understanding solar-induced changes and assessing long-term climate trends in the upper mesosphere. Additionally, it enhances our understanding of how increases in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere impact the Earth’s upper mesosphere and climate. This study presents long-term trends in the response of NLC and the background atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle variations. We utilised model simulations from the Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics and Transport (MIMAS) over 170 years (1849 to 2019), covering 15 solar cycles. Background temperature and water vapour (H2O) exhibit an apparent response to the solar cycle, with an enhancement post-1960, followed by an acceleration of greenhouse gas concentrations. NLC properties, such as maximum brightness (βmax), calculated as the maximum backscatter coefficient, altitude of βmax (referred to as NLC altitude) and ice water content (IWC), show responses to solar cycle variations that increase over time. This increase is primarily due to an increase in background water vapour concentration caused by an increase in methane (CH4). The NLC altitude positively responds to the solar cycle mainly due to solar cycle-induced temperature changes. The response of NLC properties to the solar cycle varies with latitude, with most NLC properties showing larger and similar responses at higher latitudes (69° N and 78° N) than mid-latitudes (58° N).