Long-term deep decarbonisation pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an integrated assessment model

Villamar, Daniel; Soria, Rafael; Rochedo, Pedro; Szklo, Alexandre; Império, Mariana; Carvajal, Pablo; Schaeffer, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2021.100637

Cited by 27 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Complex databases for climate technology options and models for an integrated assessment of all sectors are generally available in developed countries (Hofman and van der Gaast 2019 ). However, their existence is not the reality for most developing countries, although there are some experiences of developing countries which have their own IAMs for guiding their own climate strategy, as is the case of Ecuador with its ELENA model (Villamar et al 2021 ). Hence, countries that possess such tools might draw more insights from the Brazilian TNA experience for fine-tuning their strategies with a stakeholders-engaged MCDA, as proposed by Hofman and van der Gaast ( 2019 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil

Silva

Szklo

Vinhoza

et al. 2022

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Technological development is key for national strategies to cope with the Paris Agreement’s goals. Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) aim to identify, prioritize, and diffuse climate change mitigation and/or adaptation technologies in developing countries. Their methodology includes a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework but, although many countries already conducted a TNA, literature lacks discussions on country-specific processes for a TNA, as it usually follows a one-size-fits-all approach. This paper provides empirical evidence on the importance of country-driven processes that help shaping international programmes into country-specific needs and capabilities. It presents lessons learned from a tailored process for identification, prioritization, and selection of mitigation technologies in the scope of a TNA project for Brazil, an exceptional case of a developing country with strong capacity in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios for guiding its climate strategies. A previous IAM scenario result allowed pre-selecting technologies in six key economic sectors, while other TNAs prioritized no more than three. This allowed the elaboration of an overall ranking from the MCDA, in contrast to sectoral rankings that are mostly employed in other countries’ TNAs. The overall ranking serves not only as a basis for the selection of priority technologies but also provides information on the integrated innovations framework for climate technologies in the country. Further specific findings of the tailored Brazilian TNA approach are discussed in the paper in order to call for the importance that a technology transfer project should not only be country-driven but also conducted through a country-specific process. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10025-6.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil

Silva

Szklo

Vinhoza

et al. 2022

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For the top-down approach, Langevin [58] proposed a SCOT (social cognitive optimization for customizable training) model to calculate the carbon emissions of buildings in the United States, selected the annual energy demand of each climate zone in the United States as the calculation scale, simulated the energy consumption of typical buildings, and evaluated the impact of energy-saving measures on the impact on carbon emissions. Villamar et al designed the ELENA) model [59] for the national characteristics of Ecuador, which comprehensively considered the renewable energy and electricity demand of six energy-consuming sectors (transportation, buildings, commerce, industry, agriculture, and others).…”

Section: Regional Building Accounting Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

AI and Big Data-Empowered Low-Carbon Buildings: Challenges and Prospects

Huang

Guo

2023

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reducing carbon emissions from buildings is crucial to achieving global carbon neutrality targets. However, the building sector faces various challenges, such as low accuracy in forecasting, lacking effective methods of measurements and accounting in terms of energy consumption and emission reduction. Fortunately, relevant studies demonstrate that artificial intelligence (AI) and big data technologies could significantly increase the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction. The results can be used for building operation management to achieve emission reduction goals. For this, in this article, we overview the existing state-of-the-art methods on AI and big data for building energy conservation and low carbon. The capacity of machine learning technologies in the fields of energy conservation and environmental protection is also highlighted. In addition, we summarize the existing challenges and prospects for reference, e.g., in the future, accurate prediction of building energy consumption and reasonable planning of human behavior in buildings will become promising research directions.

show abstract

“…Net hydropower delivered per month in Ecuador. [44] Ecuador has a strategic capacity in relation to hydroelectric projects thanks to its tropical climate and water tributaries that do not vary greatly throughout the year, however, as the figure shows, there are months with a reduction in potential, this is because, although it is a tropical climate in summer seasons (June-August) there are climates without much precipitation which affects hydroelectric generation [45].…”

Section: The Ecuadorian Projectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Naranjo-Silva¹,

Punina-Guerrero²,

Rivera-González³

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Nowadays, hydropower is the principal renewable; however, climate change increases extreme events such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers that produce uncertainty in hydroelectric generation. Thus, this document aims to analyze the climate change projections in the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying the scenarios ac-cording to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study period starts from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, collects the tendency, defines a database year, and then projects the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology uses a statistic on Ecuador's hydropower obtained inflow time series to calculate the deviation over the last years and develop a model to simulate future generation. The results show that the hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios show a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% to 2050, concluding that the oppor-tunities for hydroelectric production facing climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of hydropower plants represent a sensitive issue of their re-ductions, especially knowing that the country had an energy grid in 2020 that depended on 87% of hydroelectric production.

show abstract

Long-term deep decarbonisation pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an integrated assessment model

Cited by 27 publications

References 39 publications

Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil

Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil

AI and Big Data-Empowered Low-Carbon Buildings: Challenges and Prospects

Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About