Long-Term Creep Rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for Controls on the Size and Frequency of Large Earthquakes

Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.; Simpson, Robert W.; Bilham, Roger; Ponce, David A.; Boatwright, John; Caskey, S. John

doi:10.1785/0120110033

Cited by 46 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The distribution of locked and creeping patches from the InSAR inversion reveals similar features highlighted by prior works on the HF relying on AAs, GPS, CREs, and InSAR data or a combination of these techniques [ Simpson et al , ; Malservisi et al , ; Schmidt et al , ; Lienkaemper et al , ; Shirzaei and Bürgmann , ]: the slow creeping patch near Berkeley, the locked patch beneath San Leandro, and the fast creeping patch near Fremont, extending further south given the revised geometry of Chaussard et al []. The only work suggesting a significantly different distribution of locked and slipping patches on the HF is Evans et al [] who find the strongest coupled patches at shallow depths south of Berkeley, near Hayward, and south of Fremont.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Interseismic coupling and refined earthquake potential on the Hayward‐Calaveras fault zone

et al. 2015

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Interseismic strain accumulation and fault creep is usually estimated from GPS and alignment arrays data, which provide precise but spatially sparse measurements. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar to resolve the interseismic deformation associated with the Hayward and Calaveras Faults (HF and CF) in the East San Francisco Bay Area. The large 1992–2011 SAR data set permits evaluation of short‐ and long‐wavelength deformation larger than 2 mm/yr without alignment of the velocity field to a GPS‐based model. Our time series approach in which the interferogram selection is based on the spatial coherence enables deformation mapping in vegetated areas and leads to refined estimates of along‐fault surface creep rates. Creep rates vary from 0 ± 2 mm/yr on the northern CF to 14 ± 2 mm/yr on the central CF south of the HF surface junction. We estimate the long‐term slip rates by inverting the long‐wavelength deformation and the distribution of shallow slip due to creep by inverting the remaining velocity field. This distribution of slip reveals the locations of locked and slowly creeping patches with potential for a M6.8 ± 0.3 on the HF near San Leandro, a M6.6 ± 0.2 on the northern CF near Dublin, a M6.5 ± 0.1 on the HF south of Fremont, and a M6.2 ± 0.2 on the central CF near Morgan Hill. With cascading multisegment ruptures the HF rupturing from Berkeley to the CF junction could produce a M6.9 ± 0.1, the northern CF a M6.6 ± 0.1, the central CF a M6.9 ± 0.2 from the junction to Gilroy, and a joint rupture of the HF and central CF could produce a M7.1 ± 0.1.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Interseismic coupling and refined earthquake potential on the Hayward‐Calaveras fault zone

et al. 2015

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“…The 150 km length of the creeping zone on the North Anatolian Fault [ Cetin et al ., , Figure 13a] is comparable to that of the creeping central San Andreas fault; however, earthquakes that have ruptured the ends of the creeping zone in central California have been relatively modest (e.g., Parkfield M ~ 6.0), with major earthquakes ( M w ≥ 7.6) in 1906 and 1857 abutting, rather than overlapping, those segments currently exhibiting surface creep. The combination of creep and seismic behavior of the Ismetpasa segment more closely resembles that on the Hayward fault, where apparently steady creep rates of 5–9 mm/yr are interrupted by M w ≤ 7 earthquakes at ≈ 160 year intervals [ Lienkaemper et al ., ]. At least since 40 years after the 1868 earthquake mean creep rates at Fremont on the Hayward fault have been steady, as documented by a foundation wall that has now been offset in Fremont by ≈ 1 m. This time interval represents 80% of the earthquake cycle, but it is probable that rapid initial (but undocumented) afterslip occurred prior to wall construction in Fremont [ Lienkaemper et al ., ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface creep on the North Anatolian Fault at Ismetpasa, Turkey, 1944–2016

et al. 2016

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We reevaluate the 72 year history of surface slip on the North Anatolian Fault at Ismetpasa since the Mw = 7.4 1944 Bolu/Gerede earthquake. A revised analysis of published observations suggests that days after the earthquake the fault had been offset by 3.7 m and 6 years later by an additional 0.74 m. Creep was first recognized on the fault in 1969 as a 0.13 m offset of a wall constructed in 1957 that now (2016) has been offset by 0.52 m. A carbon rod creep meter operated across the fault in the past 2 years confirms results from an invar wire creep meter operated 1982–1991 that surface slip is episodic. Months of fault inactivity are interrupted by slow slip (≤10 µm/d) or multiple creep events with cumulative amplitudes of 2–10 mm, durations of several weeks, and with slip rates briefly exceeding >2.5 mm/h. Creep events accommodate 80% of the surface slip and individually release ≈ 10−6 shear strain on the flanks of the uppermost 3–7 km of the fault. GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar methods yield a current fault slip rate of 7.6 ± 1 mm/yr suggesting that creep meters incompletely sample the full width of the surface shear zone. The slip rate has slowed from >10 mm/yr in 1969 to 6.1 mm/yr at present, 4.65 mm/yr of which appears to be due to steady interseismic creep driven by plate boundary stressing rates. We calculate that a further 1 m of aseismic surface slip will precede the next major earthquake on the fault assuming an ≈ 260 year main shock recurrence interval on this segment.

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“…Crustal deformation along the HF is characterized by a wide variety of fault slip behaviors from aseismic creep (Schmidt et al 2005) to stick-slip earthquakes including the 1868 HF earthquake that had an inferred seismic moment magnitude (M w ) of 6.8 (e.g., Lienkaemper et al 2012). To explore the rupture processes for the four target earthquakes (Table 1), we make use of borehole seismograms from the Hayward fault network (HFN).…”

Section: Hayward Fault Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The interpolation does not change the shape of the moment rate functions. We employ a nonnegative least-squares algorithm of Lawson and Hanson (1974) to ensure slip positivity, and apply a spatial smoothing with a constant smoothing factor. For each target HF earthquake, we test the two fault planes corresponding to the two nodal planes inferred from the moment tensor analysis that was obtained from inversion of long-period (50-10 s) complete waveforms.…”

Section: Finite-source Rupture Inversionmentioning

confidence: 99%