Long term cost-effectiveness of resilient foods for global catastrophes compared to artificial general intelligence safety

Denkenberger, David; Sandberg, Anders; Tieman, Ross John; Pearce, Joshua M.

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102798

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Concretely, marginal funds for resilient foods could go into highly leveraged activities such as developing rapid scaleup and infrastructure retrofit 19 methodologies or GCR response planning, which, without additional funding might not happen, or only happen significantly later. There is no analog in AI 17 The defense in depth existential risk framework describes risks according to steps a catastrophe must progress through to scale to an existential risk and corresponding potential intervention points. The three layers are prevention, response and resilience.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If civilization were lost it may not be easily recovered for various reasons: Readily accessible fossil fuels and minerals are exhausted, there might not be the stable climate of the last 10,000 years, or trust or IQ might be lost permanently because of the trauma and genetic selection of the catastrophe. Another route to far future impact is the trauma associated with the catastrophe making future catastrophes more likely, such as global totalitarianism [17]. A further route is worse values caused by the catastrophe could be locked in by artificial general intelligence (AGI) [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

Denkenberger¹,

Sandberg²,

Tieman³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Global agricultural catastrophes, which include nuclear winter and abrupt climate change, could have long-term consequences on humanity such as the collapse and nonrecovery of civilization. Using Monte Carlo (probabilistic) models, we analyze the long-term cost-effectiveness of resilient foods (alternative foods) - roughly those independent of sunlight such as mushrooms. One version of the model populated partly by a survey of global catastrophic risk researchers finds the confidence that resilient foods is more cost effective than artificial general intelligence safety is ~86% and ~99% for the 100 millionth dollar spent on resilient foods at the margin now, respectively. Another version of the model based on one of the authors produced ~95% and ~99% confidence, respectively. Considering uncertainty represented within our models, our result is robust: reverting the conclusion required simultaneously changing the 3-5 most important parameters to the pessimistic ends. However, as predicting the long-run trajectory of human civilization is extremely difficult, and model and theory uncertainties are very large, this significantly reduces our overall confidence. Because the agricultural catastrophes could happen immediately and because existing expertise relevant to resilient foods could be co-opted by charitable giving, it is likely optimal to spend most of the money for resilient foods in the next few years. Both cause areas generally save expected current lives inexpensively and should attract greater investment.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

Denkenberger¹,

Sandberg²,

Tieman³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…In addition, once the sector has reached maturity, industry experts could create a guide on building and operating the plants, apart from sharing lessons on how to successfully reach and maintain production at scale ( García Martínez et al, 2021b ). Studies have estimated that effective work on the resilience to GCFS is highly cost-effective for the long-term ( Denkenberger et al, 2022 ) as well as for the current generation ( Denkenberger and Pearce, 2016 ; Denkenberger and Pearce, 2018a ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks

Martínez¹,

Pearce

Throup³

et al. 2022

Front. Bioeng. Biotechnol.

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Global catastrophes such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or nuclear winter could cause global agricultural collapse due to reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. The human civilization’s food production system is unprepared to respond to such events, but methane single cell protein (SCP) could be a key part of the solution. Current preparedness centers around food stockpiling, an excessively expensive solution given that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS) could hamper conventional agriculture for 5–10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider resilient food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight. This study analyses the potential of SCP produced from methane (natural gas and biogas) as a resilient food source for global catastrophic food shocks from ASRS. The following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates, and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks for fast deployment are considered. While providing a more valuable, protein-rich product than its alternatives, the production capacity could be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7%–11% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Despite significant remaining uncertainties, methane SCP shows significant potential to prevent global protein starvation during an ASRS at an affordable price—US$3–5/kg dry.

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“…If this occurs there is likely to be widespread human starvation unless appropriate actions are taken [4]. This could negatively affect the long-run trajectory of humanity [5]. Planned responses from The Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) and other groups include a rapid deployment of resilient or alternative foods [6] such as, natural gas consuming single celled protein (SCP) [7], conversion of fiber (plant material that humans cannot digest) via industrial methods such as cellulosic sugar [8], macroalgae production, a two-step process involving partial decomposition from bacteria or fungi fed to animals and greenhouses to expand the potentially acceptable growing conditions [9] could feasibly address a large portion of this food deficit [10], providing a cost effective means to save lives [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Yield and Toxin Analysis of Leaf Protein Concentrate from Common North American Coniferous Trees

Mottaghi¹,

Meyer²,

Tieman³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In the event of an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario there is a time window that occurs between when food stores would likely run out for many countries (~6 months or less) and ~1 year when resilient foods are scaled up. A promising temporary resilient food is leaf protein concentrate (LPC). Although it is possible to extract LPC from tree biomass (e.g. leaves and needles), neither the yields nor the toxicity of the protein concentrates for humans from the most common tree species has been widely investigated. To help fill this knowledge gap, this study uses high-resolution mass spectrometry and an open source toolchain for non-targeted screening of toxins on five common North American coniferous species: Western Cedar, Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine, Western Hemlock, and Lodgepole Pine. The yields for LPC extraction from the conifers ranged from 1% to 7.5%. The toxicity screenings confirm that these trees may contain toxins that can be consumed in small amounts and additional studies including measuring the quantity of each toxin are needed. The results indicate that LPC is a promising candidate to be used as resilient food, but future work is needed before LPCs from conifers can be used as a wide-scale human food.

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Long term cost-effectiveness of resilient foods for global catastrophes compared to artificial general intelligence safety

Cited by 6 publications

References 79 publications

Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks

Yield and Toxin Analysis of Leaf Protein Concentrate from Common North American Coniferous Trees

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