Long-term climatic trend analysis of Giridih district, Jharkhand (India) using statistical approach

Kumar, M.; Denis, D. M.; Suryavanshi, Shakti

doi:10.1007/s40808-016-0162-2

Cited by 39 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In this study, the trends in the WBCs were detected using the nonparametric MK test (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975) because it exhibits a better performance than the parametric test (Nalley et al, 2012) for identifying trends in hydrological variables, such as rainfall (Shahid, 2010), temperature (Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a), P ET (Kumar et al, 2016), soil moisture (Tabari and Talaee, 2013), runoff (Pathak et al, 2016), groundwater level , and water quality (Lutz et al, 2016). The MK test cannot be used to accurately calculate the test statistic (Z) if there exists a significant serial correlation at lag 1 in the time series data (Yue et al, 2002) because the variance is underestimated (Hamed and Rao, 1998).…”

Section: Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Rahman

Ahmed

Adnan

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objectives of the present study were to explore the changes in the water balance components (WBCs) by co-utilizing the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and different forms of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and develop a wavelet denoise autoregressive integrated moving average (WD-ARIMA) model for forecasting the WBCs. The results revealed that most of the potential evapotranspiration (P ET ) trends (approximately 73 %) had a decreasing tendency from 1981-1982 to 2012-2013 in the western part of Bangladesh. However, most of the trends (approximately 82 %) were not statistically significant at a 5 % significance level. The actual evapotranspiration (A ET ), annual deficit, and annual surplus also exhibited a similar tendency. The rainfall and temperature exhibited increasing trends. However, the WBCs exhibited an inverse trend, which suggested that the P ET changes associated with temperature changes could not explain the change in the WBCs. Moreover, the 8-year (D3) and 16-year (D4) periodic components were generally responsible for the trends found in the original WBC data for the study area. The actual data was affected by noise, which resulted in the ARIMA model exhibiting an unsatisfactory performance. Therefore, wavelet denoising of the WBC time series was conducted to improve the performance of the ARIMA model. The quality of the denoising time series data was ensured using relevant statistical analysis. The performance of the WD-ARIMA model was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The WD-ARIMA model exhibited very good performance, which clearly demonstrated the advantages of denoising the time series data for forecasting the WBCs. The validation results of the model revealed that the forecasted values were very close to actual values, with an acceptable mean percentage error. The residuals also followed a normal distribution. The performance and validation results indicated that models can be used for the short-term forecasting of WBCs. Further studies on different combinations of wavelet analysis are required to develop a superior model for the hydrological forecasting in the context of climate change. The findings of this study can be used to improve water resource management in the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh.

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Section: Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Rahman

Ahmed

Adnan

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Physics-based numerical models are generally used for understanding a particular hydrological system and forecasting the water balance or water budget components (Fulton et al, 2015;Leta et al, 2016). To achieve reliable forecasting using numerical models, a large amount of hydrological data is required for assigning the physical properties of the grid and model parameters and calibrating the model simulation.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Anonymous

2018

Preprint

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“…However, increasing and decreasing trends of the precipitation series over the region were observed. Kumar et al (2016), investigated the temporal variation of trend in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the Giridih District in Jharkhand (India) for the period . Their results showed a significant upward trend for maximum and minimum temperature during winter season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Trend analysis of long-term time series consists of the magnitude of trend and its statistical significance (Kumar et al, 2016). Many statistical techniques have been developed to detect trends in meteorological and hydrological time series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trend analysis of climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration over different urban areas in Tunisia

Latrech¹,

Ghazouani²,

Lasram³

et al. 2019

Braz. J. Biol. Sci.

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In this study, the trend analysis of annual climatic variables including Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, RHmean, WS and SR as well as FAO-56 PM ET0 were investigated in three locations in Tunisia during 1984-2007. The Mann-Kendall Test, the Sen's Slope Estimator and linear regression tests were used for the analysis. The obtained results showed a significant increasing trends (a < 0.001) and (a < 0.01) in annual Tmax, Tmin and Tmean at all the considered locations. However, Tmin increase faster than Tmax with a slope of magnitudes ranging between 0.057 to 0.1 oC year-1. For RHmean, a non-significant tendency of decrease was observed in Chott-Mariem station. However, significantly increasing trends were found for Kelibia and Tunis Carthage. Concerning the WS variable, a tendency of decrease is observed during the study period for all the stations. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis of decreasing tendency of wind speed varied from non-significant for Tunis Carthage to highly significant (a <= 0.001) at Chott-Mariem and Kelibia. Despite the highly significant upward trend of temperature, the temporal pattern of mean annual FAO56 PM-ET0, over the different stations, did not exhibit any significant trend except for Kelibia station.

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Long-term climatic trend analysis of Giridih district, Jharkhand (India) using statistical approach

Cited by 39 publications

References 42 publications

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Reply to interactive comments of Referee #2

Long-term trend analysis of climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration over different urban areas in Tunisia

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