Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability

Mariotti, Annarita; Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Alessandri, Andrea

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3

Cited by 184 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(59 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

120

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A study on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain in particular [25] identified the Segura region, in which the catchment of the Albujon wadi is located, as highly critical regarding the hydrological implications of future climate. More recently Mariotti et al [26] investigated the long-term climate changes in the Mediterranean region using the newly available CMIP5 model simulations, and obtained similar results as in their previous study. The arid and semi-arid regions in the Mediterranean are projected to become dryer, especially during the wet season (December-February), whereas there is no significant decrease in precipitation projected for the already dry summer (June-August) season [26].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…More recently Mariotti et al [26] investigated the long-term climate changes in the Mediterranean region using the newly available CMIP5 model simulations, and obtained similar results as in their previous study. The arid and semi-arid regions in the Mediterranean are projected to become dryer, especially during the wet season (December-February), whereas there is no significant decrease in precipitation projected for the already dry summer (June-August) season [26]. Another study comparing the A1B emission scenario (balanced emphasis on all energy sources) simulations of CMIP3 with the RCP4.5 and 8.5 simulations of CMIP5 for the Mediterranean region on the seasonal basis [27] also identified a consistency between both types of scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Stefanova

Hesse

Krysanova

2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods) and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future) on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components) becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes. OPEN ACCESSWater 2015, 7 1539

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Stefanova

Hesse

Krysanova

2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…At the end of the 21st century, the average of the model outputs predicts a significant loss of freshwater (40 % for the period 2070-2090compared to 1950Sanchez-Gomez et al, 2009) over the Mediterranean region. More recently, Mariotti et al (2015) have used the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5 (CMIP5) experiments and show a significant increase in the projected surface air temperature (by ∼ +2-3 • C) for the 2071-2098 period compared to 1980-2005. These results need to be put in the context of an increasing anthropogenic pressure on the Mediterranean region, with an expected doubling of the population in countries around the Mediterranean basin in the next decades, with a contrast between a small decrease in European countries and a strong increase in African and Middle Eastern countries (Brauch, 2003). However, as highlighted by Mariotti et al (2008), despite the high degree of model consistency, the results regarding the future climate projections for the Mediterranean Sea water budget from the global coupled models are still uncertain due to their horizontal spatial resolutions that are not capable of resolving the local to regional Mediterraneanspecific processes (air-sea exchanges, coastline, topography, north-south gradient of surface albedo).…”

Section: Mallet Et Al: Overview Of the Charmex/adrimed Summer 201mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental setup also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote-sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modeling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to producing high levels of atmospheric pollutants or intense biomass burning events in the region. However, numerous mineral dust plumes were observed during the campaign, with the main sources located in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, leading to aerosol optical depth (AOD) values ranging between 0.2 and 0.6 (at 440 nm) over the western and central Mediterranean basins. One important point of this experiment concerns the direct observations of aerosol extinction onboard the ATR-42, using the CAPS system, showing local maxima reaching up to 150 M m −1 within the dust plume. Non-negligible aerosol extinction (about 50 M m −1 ) has also been observed within the marine boundary layer (MBL). By combining the ATR-42 extinction coefficient observations with absorption and scattering measurements, we performed a complete optical closure revealing excellent agreement with estimated optical properties. This additional information on extinction properties has allowed calculation of the dust single scattering albedo (SSA) with a high level of confidence over the western Mediterranean. Our results show a moderate variability from 0....

show abstract

“…General and regional climate models simulate significant changes in the water cycle of the Mediterranean region, a substantial precipitation decrease and a temperature increase before the end of the century (Sanchez-Gomez et al, 2009;Mariotti et al, 2015). Atmospheric aerosols are one of the factors that influence the Mediterranean climate through their impact on the radiation budget Nabat et al, 2014Nabat et al, , 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol optical, microphysical and radiative properties at regional background insular sites in the western Mediterranean

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the framework of the ChArMEx (the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/) program, the seasonal variability of the aerosol optical, microphysical and radiative properties derived from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network; http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/) is examined in two regional background insular sites in the western Mediterranean Basin: Ersa (Corsica Island, France) and Palma de Mallorca (Mallorca Island, Spain). A third site, Alborán (Alborán Island, Spain), with only a few months of data is considered for examining possible northeast-southwest (NE-SW) gradients of the aforementioned aerosol properties. The AERONET dataset is exclusively composed of level 2.0 inversion products available during the 5-year period 2011-2015. AERONET solar radiative fluxes are compared with groundand satellite-based flux measurements. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time that AERONET fluxes are compared with measurements at the top of the atmosphere. Strong events (with an aerosol optical depth at 440 nm greater than 0.4) of long-range transport aerosols, one of the main drivers of the observed annual cycles and NE-SW gradients, are (1) mineral dust outbreaks predominant in spring and summer in the north and in summer in the south and (2) European pollution episodes predominant in autumn. A NE-SW gradient exists in the western Mediterranean Basin for the aerosol optical depth and especially its coarse-mode fraction, which all together produces a similar gradient for the aerosol direct radiative forcing. The aerosol fine mode is rather homogeneously distributed. Absorption properties are quite variable because of the many and different sources of anthropogenic particles in and around the western Mediterranean Basin: North African and European urban areas, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas, most forest fires and ship emissions. As a result, the aerosol direct forcing efficiency, more dependent to absorption than the absolute forcing, has no marked gradient.

show abstract

Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability

Cited by 184 publications

References 44 publications

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

Aerosol optical, microphysical and radiative properties at regional background insular sites in the western Mediterranean

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About