Long-run Trends in the Economic Activity of Older People in the UK

Banks, James; Emmerson, Carl; Tetlow, Gemma

doi:10.3386/w24606

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…In other words, more than half of all men in 1975 retired between the ages of 62 and 66, whereas today this is true of fewer than one in three of all men. Banks, Emmerson and Tetlow (2018) highlight the potential role of the shift from defined benefit pensions (which tend to encourage retirement at specific ages) to defined contribution pensions (which do not) in helping to facilitate this smoother pattern of retirement.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age

Emmerson¹,

Cribb²

2022

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The patterns of employment among people in their 50s and 60s are dramatically different to those seen a few decades ago. The biggest change has been the increase in employment rates among women aged 60-65. Employment rates in that age group are now around 25 percentage points higher than in 1995, in part driven by the increases in the state pension age since 2010. For men, the striking fact is how gradually men's employment rates now decline at older ages compared with the mid-1970s. In 1975, over half of men left paid work between the ages of 62 and 66, whereas now just three in ten men leave paid work over the same ages.2 Between 2011 and the pandemic, economy-wide employment rates consistentlyand often substantiallyoutperformed official government forecasts. However, since the pandemic, employment has fallen and economic inactivity has risen whereas, before the pandemic, employment had been forecast to continue rising and economic inactivity to continue falling. This is especially the case for those aged 50+. With a forecast of flat, or gradually declining, employment rates over the next five years, the official forecast implicitly assumes that these declines for older people will not be reversed in the next few years.3 There are reasons to think that employment rates among people aged 50-69 could rise in coming years. First, each successive generation approaches retirement with greater labour market attachment, work experience over their lives, and education than their predecessors. This is particularly true of women.We would expect these patterns in general to keep people in work for longer, pushing up employment rates. Second, the state pension age is rising from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028. Given the strong rises in employment for 65 year olds seen as a result of the recent increase in the state pension age from 65 to 66, it would be surprising if this did not act to push up employment further. 4 Consistent with this, there have been large increases in expected retirement ages. The proportion of people aged 40-54 expecting to retire after the age of 65 increased sharply between 2006-08 and 2018-20, from 10% to 49% among men and from 6% to 45% among women. These increases were most dramatic between 2008 and 2014, but continued to rise more gradually between 2014 and 2019.Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age

Emmerson¹,

Cribb²

2022

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“…Since the 1990s policymakers across OECD countries including the UK have sought to curb the long-term trend of early retirement among older workers (Blundell, Meghir & Smith, 2002;Banks, Emmerson & Tetlow, 2018). Retirement here refers to a gradual reduction or complete cessation of labour supply (Denton & Spencer, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State Pension Eligibility Age and Retirement Behaviour: Evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study

Kanabar

Kalwij

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…In relation to the former, see Berrington et al (2010) and Sissons and Jones (2012). In relation to the latter, a long list includes the work by Banks et al (2020); Bell and Rutherford (2013); George et al (2015); Lain (2012) and Nunez (2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are we working less? An examination of changing UK labour supply decisions since the 1990s

Jones

Nasir

2020

JES

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PurposeThis purpose of the study is to examine the labour supply decisions with respect to earnings and considers whether we are willing or indeed able to work less. The authors specifically focus on the three points of time, i.e. beginning of the sample, pre and post Global Financial Crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe study regression analysis by utilises microdata from the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) regarding individual hours worked in three separate survey periods: 1994q2, 2007q2 and 2015q2FindingsThe results suggest that we are far from income-satiated. The elasticity of hours worked with respect to earnings is stubbornly inelastic and for some demographic cohorts positive, implying the desire to work more. The authors find that job flexibility matters in facilitating reduced hours of work, but that jobs are not becoming more flexible. The authors also do see a secular reduction in hours worked, accompanied by a shift to working later in life, but these appear to be down to factors other than higher wages.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has important research implications in terms of understanding the dynamics of the labour market on the whole and in the pre and post global financial crisis periods.Practical implicationsThe research has profound policy implication in terms of labour and employment policy.Social implicationsThere are important social implications, particularly in terms of household labour supply decisions and substitution between work and leisure.Originality/valueThe study has significant element of originality in terms of understanding the changing dynamics of labour market. This is the first study which has investigated the labour market in the light of empirical evidence and in the various time periods.

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Long-run Trends in the Economic Activity of Older People in the UK

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age

Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age

State Pension Eligibility Age and Retirement Behaviour: Evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study

Are we working less? An examination of changing UK labour supply decisions since the 1990s

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