The patterns of employment among people in their 50s and 60s are dramatically different to those seen a few decades ago. The biggest change has been the increase in employment rates among women aged 60-65. Employment rates in that age group are now around 25 percentage points higher than in 1995, in part driven by the increases in the state pension age since 2010. For men, the striking fact is how gradually men's employment rates now decline at older ages compared with the mid-1970s. In 1975, over half of men left paid work between the ages of 62 and 66, whereas now just three in ten men leave paid work over the same ages.2 Between 2011 and the pandemic, economy-wide employment rates consistentlyand often substantiallyoutperformed official government forecasts. However, since the pandemic, employment has fallen and economic inactivity has risen whereas, before the pandemic, employment had been forecast to continue rising and economic inactivity to continue falling. This is especially the case for those aged 50+. With a forecast of flat, or gradually declining, employment rates over the next five years, the official forecast implicitly assumes that these declines for older people will not be reversed in the next few years.3 There are reasons to think that employment rates among people aged 50-69 could rise in coming years. First, each successive generation approaches retirement with greater labour market attachment, work experience over their lives, and education than their predecessors. This is particularly true of women.We would expect these patterns in general to keep people in work for longer, pushing up employment rates. Second, the state pension age is rising from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028. Given the strong rises in employment for 65 year olds seen as a result of the recent increase in the state pension age from 65 to 66, it would be surprising if this did not act to push up employment further. 4 Consistent with this, there have been large increases in expected retirement ages. The proportion of people aged 40-54 expecting to retire after the age of 65 increased sharply between 2006-08 and 2018-20, from 10% to 49% among men and from 6% to 45% among women. These increases were most dramatic between 2008 and 2014, but continued to rise more gradually between 2014 and 2019.Recent and future patterns of work around state pension age