Long-Run Growth and Demographic Prospects in Advanced Economies

Abstract

This paper analyses the long-run growth rates of advanced economies, based on demographic factors. To this end, growth is broken down into two components: growth in productivity (GDP per working-age person) and the projected rate of growth of the working-age population. Productivity is assumed to grow in the longrun at a constant rate equal to that of the technology leader, whereas the demographic projections are those of the United Nations. This simple methodology abstracts from other factors normally considered in the literature on long-term growth, such as the convergence process (we focus on advanced economies) and heterogeneity in participation and employment rates. However, the results do not differ much from those obtained using these other approaches (which are richer, but also more speculative), although the growth rates turn out to be somewhat lower in most cases. They indicate a general deceleration of growth in advanced economies in the coming two decades, due to a slowdown in working-age population growth. Japan, Germany, Italy and Spain face the least favourable growth dynamics in our sample, as these countries face reductions in the size of their workforces. By 2050 France and the United Kingdom could have overtaken Germany to become the largest economies in Europe. In the case of Spain (whose working-age population is expected to peak in 2024) the growth rate of GDP will progressively decline to just below 2% over the following decade.

Perlambatan Pertumbuhan dan Transisi Demografi di Indonesia

“…Namun, dalam konteks internal, perananan demografi sebagai instrumen penting dalam pembangunan juga perlu disoroti lebih jauh. Profil demografi seperti angka kelahiran, angka kematian serta angka ketergantungan juga dapat berkontribusi pada pembangunan dan pertumbuhan dalam jangka panjang (Nuno, et al 2012). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat faktor penyebab perlambatan ekonomi yang dilihat dari komponen makroekonomi dan demografi.…”

“…Ini menunjukkan bahwa harapan hidup yang rendah akan memengaruhi perlambatan pertumbuhan karena dapat memunculkan masalah sosial ekonomi baru. Studi empiris lain dilakukan oleh Nuno, et al (2012) yang memilih menyoroti demografi pada negara-negara maju dengan pendapatan tinggi. Hasil analisisnya menunjukkan hal yang sama bahwa variabel profil demografi yakni angka beban ketergantungan dalam jangka panjang memberikan pengaruh pada perlambatan ekonomi di Jepang, Perancis, Jerman, Italia dan Spanyol.…”