Long-Range Forecasting of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset and Rainfall with Upper Air Parameters and Sea Surface Temperature

Kung, Ernest C.; Sharif, Taher Ahmed

doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.60.2_672

Cited by 46 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Nicholls (1983) also found changes in the sign of the correlation coefficients around this time between SSTs over the Indonesian area and Indian summer monsoon. Kung and Sharif (1982) used the preceding winter SST over the Arabian Sea in their model to forecast Indian summer monsoon rainfall and onset date. The pattern of relationship is stronger in the rainfall fluctuation regions of A, B and C shown in Fig.…”

Section: Seasonal Relationships Between Sst Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships Between Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and the Rainfall of Sri Lanka

Suppiah

1988

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Spatial and temporal variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean are examined by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first EOF mode explains 20.54% of the total variance indicating positive values which reveal coherent interannual variations over the study area. Time coefficients of the first EOF mode show a strong relationship with the Pacific SST anomalies. Therefore, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are observed in the time coefficients of the first EOF mode almost simultaneously. Power spectrum analysis reveals a dominant peak ranging from 18 to 48 months which covers the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the dominant cycle in the Southern Oscillation phenomenon (30 to 40 months). The second and third EOF modes explain relatively less contributions, 5.6% and 5.1% of the total variance.A weak positive correlation coefficient is observed between the time coefficients of the first EOF mode of SST anomalies and the time coefficients of the first EOF mode of the rainfall over Sri Lanka when all months are considered, but strong relationships are noticed for the months of October, November and December which coincide with the mature and decay stages of ENSO events. The positive relationships between SST anomalies of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and rainfall anomalies of the above mentioned months first appear in March and April, and then gradually build up towards the significant level in the concurrent months. In the case of the summer monsoon season, Arabian Sea SSTs, where strong seasonal and regional variations are found, strongly influence the rainfall of Sri Lanka, particularly striking in the southwestern quadrant of the island. Rainfall of this season has a significant positive correlation with the SST over the Arabian Sea during the concurrent period, but significant negative correlation with the previous months, before six months. The changes in the sign of the correlation coefficients occur in the months of November-December of the year before the summer monsoon, thus it may be useful to foreshadow the excess and deficit rainfall over Sri Lanka few months in advance.

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Section: Seasonal Relationships Between Sst Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships Between Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and the Rainfall of Sri Lanka

Suppiah

1988

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…In the 1960s IMD introduced several forecasting manuals to describe various facets of the monsoon including its onset (Ananthakrishnan et al 1967). Research continued through the 1970s (e.g., Reddy 1977;Subbaramayya and Bhanukumar 1978), the 1980s (e.g., Saha and Saha 1980;Kung and Shariff 1982;Deshpande et al 1986;Joseph and Pillai 1988), the 1990s (e.g., Rajeevan and Dube 1995), and into the current decade (e.g., Ghanekar et al 2003). In spite of all this research and the additional information available, no one could make fundamental changes to the onset dates published in 1943 by IMD.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Objective Definition of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset*

2009

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The onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the southern tip of the Indian peninsula [also known as monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK)] has been considered the beginning of India's rainy season. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) makes an official prediction of ISM onset every year using a subjective method. Based on an analysis of the past 60-yr (1948-2007) record, the authors show that the onset date can be objectively determined by the beginning of the sustained 850-hPa zonal wind averaged over the southern Arabian Sea (SAS) from 58 to 158N, and from 408 to 808E. The rapid establishment of a steady SAS westerly is in excellent agreement with the abrupt commencement of the rainy season over the southern tip of the Indian peninsula. In 90% of the years analyzed, this simple and objective index has excellent agreement with the onset dates that are subjectively defined by the IMD. There are only 3 yr of the past 60 yr during which the two onset dates differ by more than 10 days, and none of them perfectly reflects the MOK.A prominent onset precursor on the biweekly time scale is the westward extension of the convection center from the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean toward the southeast Arabian Sea. On the intraseasonal time scale, the onset tends to be led by northeastward propagation of an intraseasonal convective anomaly from the western equatorial Indian Ocean. The objective determination of the onset based on the SAS low-level westerly is a characteristic representation of the complex process of the ISM onset. Given its objectiveness and its representation of the large-scale circulation, the proposed new onset definition provides a useful metric for verifying numerical model performance in simulating and predicting the ISM onset and for studying predictability of interannual variations of the onset.

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“…Some parameters out of these 28 have lost their significance in due course of time. Banerjee et al (1978); Kung and Sharif (1982), Bhalme et al (1986), Parthasarathy et al (1988Parthasarathy et al ( , 1991, Gowariker et al (1989Gowariker et al ( , 1991, Dugam et al (1990Dugam et al ( , 1993Dugam et al ( , 1997Dugam et al ( , 2009), Krishna Kumar et al (1995Kumar et al ( , 1997, Munot and Pant (1998), Kakade (1999, 2004), Dugam (2000, 2006), Munot and Krishna Kumar (2007), etc. have also invented some new parameters for the ISMR prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between ESI tendency and Indian monsoon rainfall: a possible mechanism

Kakade

Kulkarni

2011

Atmospheric Science Letters

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In this article, we have studied spatial and temporal variabilities of temperature and zonal wind field over 90 • -0 • N, 90 • W-90 • E during contrasting phases of Effective Strength Index (ESI) tendency and its relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). During positive (negative) ESI tendency, there is winter-time anomalous cooling (warming) over western Eurasia surrounding Moscow but magnitude of warming is stronger than cooling. The correlation analysis also suggests that negative ESI tendency is significantly associated with warming over western Eurasia during winter and spring seasons. The study further reveals that positive (negative) ESI tendency is indicating winter-time anomalous trough (ridge) over the Russian region surrounding Moscow.

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Long-Range Forecasting of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset and Rainfall with Upper Air Parameters and Sea Surface Temperature

Cited by 46 publications

References 12 publications

Relationships Between Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and the Rainfall of Sri Lanka

Relationships Between Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and the Rainfall of Sri Lanka

Objective Definition of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset*

Relationship between ESI tendency and Indian monsoon rainfall: a possible mechanism

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