Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

Bardin, M. Yu.; Platova, T. V.

doi:10.3103/s106837391912001x

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…4e the largest growing trends in the frequency of soil drought extreme events is observed for central and some southern regions of the European part of Russia. The same results are reported in many studies (Pavlova et al, 2020;Bardin and Platova, 2019;Cherenkova et al, 2020;Dunn et al, 2020;Cherenkova and Semenov, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Available Russian scienti c literature provides an analysis of changes in climatic parameters and extreme events in the country. Increased duration and intensity of hot waives and droughts are reported for central and southern European part of Russia (Bardin and Platova, 2019;Pavlova et al, 2020;Cherenkova and Semenov, 2021). Annual reports of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation (Roshydromet) show that the changes in the precipitation regime in Russia are dominated by an increase in their annual amounts: the trend is 2.2% of the norm /10 years, but the distribution is very uneven (Report of peculiarities of climate…, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Romanovskaya

2022

Preprint

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Analytical studies of regional trends in the number of extreme weather events, primarily causing social and economic damage, are lacking in Russia, although this is the basis for developing mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change. Therefore, we investigated trends in the number of extreme weather events that caused damage in Russia by their type, their distribution by regions and identified regions where urgent adaptation is needed. The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990–2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively (statistical significance of the trend at the 0.001 level). However, the proportion of events with damage in relation to events which did not cause damage decreased over this period by almost a third (from 63–47%). This can be explained both by a possible methodological inconsistency in the time series of damage events and by more effective adaptation measures. The trends and regional distribution of extreme hot and cold temperature events are not unequivocally consistent with the literature and show regions with both positive and negative changes in the number of extreme events that caused damage. Statistically significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are generally positive and observed only in some southern and central regions of European Russia. These results are in good agreement with the results of other studies. The development and rapid implementation of regional adaptation plans is a priority for these regions, given that these are densely populated areas with predominantly agricultural production.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Romanovskaya

2022

Preprint

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“…На фоне растущей среднемесячной величины приземной температуры также растет частота и размах ее суточных вариаций, особо заметны эти изменения в период зимних месяцев. Увеличение частоты аномальных перепадов величины приземной температуры воздуха влечет за собой изменение конвективных процессов в атмосфере, режима осадков и возникновения ОГЯ [13,14]. А это вносит свои коррективы в режим работы котельных.…”

Section: заключениеunclassified

Climate change as a factor of regional changes in energy consumption (natural gas, electricity)

Лазовский

2024

Вестник Адыгейского Государственного Университета, Серия «Естественно-Математические И Технические Науки»

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На основе анализа климатических показателей и данных тепло- и электроэнергетики предприятий Лабинского района Краснодарского края выявлены тренды динамик полезного отпуска природного газа и электроэнергии потребителям. Определены взаимосвязь и перспективы расхода энергоресурсов с учетом общерегио-нальных изменений климата, а также в разрезе и по сезонам местных климатических особенностей рассматриваемого района. Многолетние данные были сформированы по приземной температуре воздуха в ФГБОУ «Краснодарская ВС» и на Метеостанции Ла-бинского филиала КЦГМС ФГБОУ «Северо - Кавказское УГМС»; по отпуску, расходу га-за и электроэнергии потребителям частного сектора и юридическим лицам в МУП г. Лабинска «Тепловые сети», в филиале г. Лабинска АО «Газпром газораспределение Краснодар», в Лабинском филиале АО «НЭСК», в Лабинском филиале ПАО «Россети Ку-бань». Установлено, что изменение климата ведет к неоднозначной динамике расхода (потребления) энергоресурсов, а именно с повышением приземной температуры воздуха существует устойчивая тенденция экономии ресурсов в теплоэнергетики района и, в тоже время она сомнительна для электроэнергетики. The work is devoted to the analysis of climatic data and data of heat and elec-tric power of enterprises on the example of the Labinsky district of the Krasnodar Territory. The article identifies trends in the dynamics of the useful supply of natural gas and electricity to con-sumers of the Labinsk region, determines the relationship and prospects of energy consumption, taking into account, both in general, with regional climate changes, and in the context of sea-sons, taking into account local climatic features of the area under consideration. Long-term da-ta, based on the results of the analysis of which conclusions were drawn, were directly collected: on the surface air temperature in the Krasnodar VS FSUE (hereinafter KVS) and at the Labinsk Weather Station of the North Caucasian UGMS branch of the North Caucasian UGMS FSUE (hereinafter MS Labinsk); on vacation, gas and electricity consumption, private sector consum-ers and to legal entities, in the Municipal Unitary Enterprise of Labinsk “Thermal Networks”, in the Labinsk branch of JSC Gazprom Gas Distribution Krasnodar, in the Labinsk branch of JSC NESK, in the Labinsk branch of PJSC Rosseti Kuban. As a result of the analysis, it was found that climate change leads to ambiguous changes in the dynamics of energy consumption (con-sumption). With an increase in surface air temperature, there is a steady tendency to save re-sources in the district’s thermal power industry, at the same time it is questionable for the elec-tric power industry.

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“…According to [2][3][4][5][6][7][8], the current climate change impacts not only the mean values of meteorological parameters (for example, surface temperature) but also their positive and negative anomalies, although the frequency and magnitude of these changes vary regionally.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatology of Synoptic Non-Gaussian Meteorological Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2018

Loginov,

Moraru,

Kharyutkina

et al. 2024

Climate

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The analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the number of non-Gaussian extreme anomalies of climatic parameters was carried out for both the initial time series and synoptic variability in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1979–2018, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. There are predominantly three types of empirical distribution densities at 850 hPa, each characterizing the processes of advective and convective heat transfer. At the beginning of the 21st century, compared to the end of the 20th century, there was an increase in the number of anomalies in vertical wind speed and specific humidity for the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, there is an increase in the number of zonal wind speed anomalies in the low and middle latitudes. Regions with the maximum number of anomalies are primarily located over the continents, while for vertical wind speed anomalies, they are predominantly over the oceans. The application of R/S analysis and multifractal analysis has established that the identified tendencies (which are persistent processes) will continue in the identified regions. The time series of non-Gaussian anomalies (both initial and synoptic scales) exhibit a long-term memory of approximately four years, and synoptic extreme anomalies were found to be more predictable.

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Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

Cited by 15 publications

References 11 publications

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Trends in Extreme Weather Events with Socio-Economic Damage in Russia

Climate change as a factor of regional changes in energy consumption (natural gas, electricity)

Climatology of Synoptic Non-Gaussian Meteorological Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2018

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