Logical Imputation to Optimize Prognostic Risk Classification in Metastatic Renal Cell Cancer

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Application of the MSKCC and IMDC models is recommended for prognostication in metastatic renal cell cancer (mRCC). Patient classification in MSKCC and IMDC risk groups in real-world observational studies is often hampered by missing data on required pre-treatment characteristics. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of application of easy-to-use logical, or deductive, imputation on MSKCC and IMDC risk classification in an observational study setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used data on 713 mRCC patients with first-line sunitinib treatment from our observational European multi-centre study EuroTARGET. Pre-treatment characteristics and follow-up were derived from medical files. Hospital-specific cut-off values for laboratory measurements were requested. The effect of logical imputation of missing data and consensus versus hospital-specific cut-off values on patient classification and the subsequent models’ predictive performance for progression-free and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. RESULTS: 45% of the patients had missing data for≥1 pre-treatment characteristic for either model. Still, 72% of all patients could be unambiguously classified using logical imputation. Use of consensus instead of hospital-specific cut-offs led to a shift in risk group for 12% and 7% of patients for the MSKCC and IMDC model, respectively. Using logical imputation or other cut-offs did not influence the models’ predictive performance. These were in line with previous reports (c-statistic ∼0.64 for OS) CONCLUSIONS: Logical imputation leads to a substantial increase in the proportion of patients that can be correctly classified into poor and intermediate MSKCC and IMDC risk groups in observational studies and its use in the field should be advocated.