Locking-derived tsunami scenarios for the most recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile: implications for tsunami hazard assessment

Drápela, José; Calisto, Ignacia; Moreno, Marcos

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04572-5

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Chile is one of the most tsunami-prone countries globally, with more than 100 tsunamis recorded since the 16th century, including 35 destructive events up to 2005 (Lagos and Gutiérrez, 2005) and recent disasters in 2010, 2014, and 2015. Moreover, researchers including Drápela et al (2021), Klein et al (2017), andMedina et al (2021) have underlined the existence of extensive submarine areas in seismic locking along the central and northern coasts of Chile, capable of triggering large destructive tsunamis if major rupture earthquakes occur. Among the Chilean coastal cities, we selected seven case studies, distributed from north to south: Arica, Iquique, Coquimbo, La Serena, Viña del Mar, Valparaíso, and Talcahuano (see Fig.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement

León

Gubler

Ogueda

2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Evacuation is the most important and effective method to save human lives during a tsunami. In this respect, challenges exist in developing quantitative analyses of the relationships between the evacuation potential and the built-environment and geographical attributes of coastal locations. This paper proposes a computer-based modelling approach (including inundation, evacuation, and built-environment metrics), followed by multivariate regressive analysis, to estimate how those attributes might influence the expected tsunami death ratios of seven Chilean coastal cities. We obtained, for the examined variables, their average values to different thresholds of the death ratio. Also, our statistical analysis allowed us to compare the relative importance of each metric, showing that the maximum flood, the straightness of the street network, the total route length, and the travel time can have a significant impact on the expected death ratios. Moreover, we suggest that these results could lead to spatial planning guidelines for developing new urban areas into exposed territories (if this expansion cannot be restricted or discouraged) or retrofitting existing ones, with the final aim of enhancing evacuation and therefore increasing resilience.

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Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement

León

Gubler

Ogueda

2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Chile is one of the most tsunami-prone countries globally, with more than 100 tsunamis recorded since the 16 th century, including 35 destructive events (Lagos and Gutiérrez, 2005) and recent disasters in 2010, 2014 and 2015. Moreover, researchers including Drápela et al (2021), Klein et al (2017), andMedina et al (2021) have underlined the existence of extensive submarine areas in seismic locking along the central and northern coasts of Chile, capable of triggering large destructive tsunamis if major rupture earthquakes occur. Among the Chilean coastal cities, we selected seven case studies, distributed from north to south: Arica, Iquique, Coquimbo, La Serena, Viña del Mar, Valparaíso, and Talcahuano (see Fig.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling geographical and built environment’s attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case study and paths to improvement

León

Gubler

Ogueda

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Evacuation is the most important and effective method to save human lives during a tsunami. In this respect, challenges exist in developing quantitative analyses of the relationships between the evacuation potential and the built environment and geographical attributes of coastal locations. This paper proposes a computer-based modelling approach (including inundation, evacuation, and built environment metrics), followed by multivariate regressive analysis, to estimate how those attributes might influence the expected tsunami death ratios of seven Chilean coastal cities. We obtained, for the examined variables, their average values to different thresholds of the death ratio. Also, our statistical analysis allowed us to compare the relative importance of each metric, showing that the maximum flood, the straightness of the street network, the total route length, and the travel time can have a significant impact on the expected death ratios. Moreover, we suggest that these results could lead to spatial planning guidelines for developing new urban areas into exposed territories (if this expansion cannot be restricted or discouraged) or retrofitting existing ones, with the final aim of enhancing evacuation and therefore increasing resilience.

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Tsunami Modeling in the South American Subduction Zone Inferred from Seismic Coupling and Historical Seismicity

Medina

Riquelme

Fuentes

et al. 2021

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Locking-derived tsunami scenarios for the most recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile: implications for tsunami hazard assessment

Cited by 6 publications

References 63 publications

Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement

Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement

Modelling geographical and built environment’s attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case study and paths to improvement

Tsunami Modeling in the South American Subduction Zone Inferred from Seismic Coupling and Historical Seismicity

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