Locked on course: Hydro-Quebec's commitment to mega-projects

Maxwell, James; Lee, Jennifer; Briscoe, Forrest; Stewart, Ann; Suzuki, Tatsujiro

doi:10.1016/s0195-9255(96)00073-x

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…In fact, many empirical case studies on escalation of commitment are single case studies (e.g. Expo 86 World Fair and the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Staw 1986, 1993), Taurus (Drummond 1996(Drummond , 1999, Great Whale hydroelectric complex (Maxwell et al 1997) and the Channel Fixed Link (Winch 2013)). The context-dependent knowledge and explorative insights that can be gained from a single case are highly valuable (Flyvbjerg 2006).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most studies have focused on the drivers of lock-in in the implementation phase (e.g. Staw 1986, 1993;Maxwell et al 1997;Drummond 1999;Winch 2013) such as overconfidence, sunk costs, perceived need for self-justification, denial, and completion effects (Drummond 2014). However, there is a need to "identify various factors that may operate during different stages of the project" (He and Mittal 2007: 236).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

2021

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Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify determinants of lock-in in the front-end phase and we reveal decision-makers’ perceptions of risk of lock-in. Our findings show that risk attitudes towards lock-in vary with the level of risk aversion. However, this is not sufficiently acute to drive the level of regret needed to avoid lock-in. This implies that decision-makers do not accurately assess the risk of lock-in and as such their risk perceptions are a mediating factor in the formation of lock-in. Based on escalation of commitment, path dependency, and prospect theory, the main contribution lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of lock-in in the front-end phase.

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Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

2021

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“…The James Bay Hydroelectric Project is located in the taiga region of northwestern Québec (Maxwell et al, 1997). This region extends from 48°N to 55°N and covers an area of 350,000 km 2 (Sénecal and Égré, 1999).…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing the Natural Streamflow of a Regulated River: A Case Study of La Grande Rivière, Québec, Canada

Hernández-Henríquez¹,

Mlynowski²,

Déry³

2010

Canadian Water Resources Journal

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Abstract:The regulation of rivers by dams, diversions, and reservoirs leads to perturbed streamflow time series, making it difficult for hydrological studies to assess natural trends and variability in runoff. This case study applies a variation of Hirsch's maintenance of variance extension (MOVE) method to reconstruct La Grande Rivière 's 1979's -2004's natural streamflow. The 1960's -2004 hydrometric data for the Eastmain River and Grande Rivière de la Baleine are summed and compared with the 1960-1978 pre-regulated runoff time series of La Grande Rivière. Statistical analyses reveal a reasonable NashSutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index (E f = 0.58) and near 1:1 ratio between the standardized anomalies of the two river combination and La Grande Rivière's 1960-1978 natural flow records. The accuracy of the proposed method is confirmed by the low error rates and a reasonably high NSE index (E f = 0.64) exhibited between La Grande Rivière's 1960-1978 observed and reconstructed monthly streamflow time series. Moreover, the reconstructed flows exhibit variability and a natural flow pattern that is indicative of nival rivers, whereas the 1984-2004 regulated flow rates from Hydro-Québec show minimal streamflow variability and a flattened annual hydrograph. Trend analyses in total annual runoff reveal opposite trends from the Eastmain and Grande Rivière de la Baleine that offset each other to yield no trend when these two rivers are used to reconstruct La Grande Rivière's streamflows. The methodology applied in this study is a reliable way to complete the hydrometric record of La Grande Rivière, making it more feasible for future studies to investigate the natural variations and possible effects of climatic forcings on the hydrological cycle of the regulated river.Résumé : La réglementation des rivières par des barrages, détournements, et réservoirs donnent des séries hydrométriques perturbées, ce qui rend difficile l'étude des tendances et de la variabilité naturelle dans ces systèmes. Cette étude de cas applique une méthode développée par Hirsch qui conserve la variabilité dans un système afin de reconstruire les débits naturels de La Grande Rivière pour la période 1979-2004.

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“…With an extensive history of megaprojects (Maxwell et al 1997;Jergeas 2008) and reclamation efforts (Scheider et al 1975;Powter et al 2012;Rooney et al 2015), Canada, and more specifically the province of Alberta is undertaking significant wetland reclamation. This is because wetlands are a defining feature of the landscape in Alberta, from the prairie potholes of the grasslands and parklands in the arid south, to the expansive peatland complexes of the boreal in the subhumid north (Downing and Pettapiece 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the potential of integrating distribution and structure of permanent open-water wetlandscapes in reclamation design: a case study of Alberta, Canada

Ridge

Robinson

Rooney

2020

Wetlands Ecol Manage

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Wetlands are multi-functional systems that provide a disproportionate number of ecosystem services given the spatial extent they occupy both nationally and globally. The ecological functioning of these wetlands is dependent on the structure of the landscape, which poses unique challenges when reclaiming wetlands in areas where resource extraction is occurring. Resource extraction mega-projects require that entire wetlandscapes be reclaimed and often involve timelines that necessitate the consideration of climate projections to create self-sustaining, naturally appearing wetlandscapes that meet policy objectives. To understand wetlandscape structure and guide reclamation planning and closure permitting evaluation, a random sample of 13,676 1-km2 landscapes were subselected to identify 1684 permanent open-water wetlandscapes. A parsimonious set of landscape metrics were applied and compared across levels of anthropogenic disturbance and across natural regions (i.e., Grassland, Parkland and Boreal). Results demonstrated that permanent open-water wetlands are relatively rare (12.3% of our total random sample) and typically occupy less than 8% of wetlandscapes when present. The majority of wetlands in the study area are less permanent and more variable in nature than the permanent open water wetlandscapes created by megaproject reclamation, which has the potential to alter the distribution and size of open-water wetlands beyond their natural occurrence. Comparison across disturbance levels and natural regions yield statistical differences among landscape structure. General wetland landscapes representing a combination of disturbance level and natural region can be created for each metric to guide reclamation design and closure planning approval.

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Locked on course: Hydro-Quebec's commitment to mega-projects

Cited by 9 publications

References 2 publications

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Reconstructing the Natural Streamflow of a Regulated River: A Case Study of La Grande Rivière, Québec, Canada

Assessing the potential of integrating distribution and structure of permanent open-water wetlandscapes in reclamation design: a case study of Alberta, Canada

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