Local perceptions of climate change impacts and migration patterns in Malé, Maldives

Abstract

For the last few decades, Maldives has been seen as being at the forefront of addressing climate change impacts. The low elevation of the islands makes them vulnerable to slow‐onset hazards, such as coastal erosion, sea‐level rise, salinity intrusion, and change in monsoon patterns and hence rainfall. Consequently, migration has long been discussed as an adaptation strategy for the population. This study covers outcomes from our field research conducted among islanders in Malé, the capital of Maldives, in 2013. It contributes empirical evidence toward understanding complex relations among environmental challenges, climate change, and migration. We set up two main research questions. The first question explored islanders' perceptions of impacts of climatic variability in recent years and possible impacts of future climate change. The second question probed whether out‐migration from the islands might be considered to be an adaptation strategy and whether the islanders were willing to move outside Maldives due to projected climate change impacts. We conducted our field research in the capital Malé and nearby residential islands, using quantitative questionnaires with local respondents (N=347). Our results suggest that, besides a set of actually experienced environmental and climate challenges, slow‐onset climate change impacts such as sea‐level rise are perceived as being one of the key factors affecting Maldivian society and livelihoods. More than 50% of respondents perceive future sea‐level rise to be a serious challenge at the national level and they accept that migration from islands to other countries might be a potential option. Conversely, from the individual perspective, sea‐level rise is not perceived by the local population as being one of their own important challenges. The reason is that many other factors – cultural, religious, economic and social – play an important role in decisionmaking about migrating or not.

Climate‐induced migration: Exploring local perspectives in Kiribati

“…Overall, the majority of respondents were concerned with how climate change would impact on Kiribati's habitability in the future and so were willing to consider migration, which mirrors the findings by Stojanov et al . () in the Maldives.…”

“…Those that stated they would consider migrating were then asked where they would move to: the majority wanted to migrate to another country (77.5 per cent); 12.5 per cent wanted to move to another island in Kiribati; and 10 per cent to a nearby village. Overall, the majority of respondents were concerned with how climate change would impact on Kiribati's habitability in the future and so were willing to consider migration, which mirrors the findings by Stojanov et al (2016)…”

“…Given the interconnectedness between climate change, an increasing severity of disaster events (IPCC, ) and the recent experiences of Cyclone Pam in Kiribati (March 2015), it is clear that environmental change — gradual and rapid onset — is of primary concern for respondents. This matches other studies in small island developing states such as the Maldives (Stojanov et al ., ) but differs slightly from other studies focused on Pacific countries such as Tuvalu (Mortreux & Barnett, ; McCubbin et al ., ) and Niue (McNamara et al ., ), which demonstrate that socio‐economic issues are often the most concerning for people. For these respondents in Kiribati however, this dominant concern about climate change and disaster risk may have been through their direct exposure to environmental changes or events and/or understanding of how such changes influence key livelihood assets such as food and water.…”

“…The impacts of anthropogenic climate change have fuelled discussions on the links between environmental change and migration. Low-lying islands in particular have featured prominently in these discussions given their topography, precarious supply of and access to freshwater resources, and high susceptibility to natural disasters (recent studies include for example, Connell, 2016;Constable, 2016;Stojanov et al, 2016). Despite emitting negligible amounts of greenhouse gases in comparison to developed countries, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commonly indicates how small island developing states are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Nurse et al, 2014;Parry et al, 2007).…”

Conhecimento e percepção das mudanças climáticas globais no público universitário na megalópole de São Paulo e na Região SubAntártica Chilena

“…As realidades sócio-demográfica e cultural também atuam como elementos importantes para o processo perceptivo e para a formação de concepções sobre as MCGs (Atiqul, Khandaker, & Ahmed, 2016;Brechin, 2012;Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015;Sjoberg, 1997;Unanue, Vignoles, Dittmar, & Vansteenkiste, 2016 (Crona et al, 2013;Howe et al, 2012;Stojanov et al, 2016;Tiwari & Awasthi, 2010).…”