Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

Misra, Vasubandhu; Bhardwaj, Amit; Mishra, Akhilesh

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3924-2

Cited by 36 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Wang and LinHo () also suggested that rainfall over northeastern India starts earlier than Indian monsoon itself. Premonsoon showers are often related to the onset over these regions and a smooth transition from premonsoon showers to summer monsoon rains over these regions blurs the distinction between them (Krishnamurti & Ramanathan, ; Misra et al, ). The premonsoon showers could act as a necessary precursor to the summer rains over these regions (Misra et al, ) and hence are important in understanding the evolution of the ISM.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data set can be purchased from IMD (http://imdpune.gov.in/ndc_new/Request.html). Misra et al () used the similar data set to define local onset and demise dates of the ISM. Rainfall over the extreme northern portion (north of 34° N and parts of the states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the foothills of the Himalayas) of India may be highly influenced by orography (Bhatt & Nakamura, ), which can lead to complexities with diagnosis of ISO or local onset/demise of the ISM.…”

Section: Data Set and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We define local onset and demise dates as they are developed in Misra et al (). While we refer to their study for the detailed description, we present here a broad overview of the methodology.…”

Section: Data Set and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, determination of onset/demise of the ISM could be more useful if it is done locally. Recently, few studies have developed a regional or local definition for onset and demise of the ISM based on rainfall (Misra et al, ; Moron & Robertson, ). Moron and Robertson () used 1° gridded rainfall data from 1901–2004 and defined onset dates based on “the first significant rains without a potentially crop‐threatening dry spell thereafter.” They showed that there exist a large spread in the interquartile range of the median of the onset dates from less than 2 weeks over the core monsoon zone to about 30 days over the northwestern regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They found a drop in this spatial coherence in the core of the monsoon season in contrast to onset and withdrawal phases, hence concluding the subseasonal prediction skill might be higher during the early and the late monsoon phases than during the mature (core) phase of the monsoon season. Misra et al () defined onset/demise of the ISM using cumulative rainfall anomalies. This definition is adaptive to any given spatial resolution of the rainfall data set and tends to avoid false onset and demise because the definition is anchored to the climatological evolution of the all‐India averaged monsoon seasonal cycle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Karmakar

Misra

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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Two of the most important hydroclimatic features of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall are its onset/demise and intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) manifested by the active‐break cycles. In this study, we aim to understand the quantitative association between these two phenomena. An objective definition of local onset/demise of the ISM based on more than a century‐long India Meteorological Department rain gauge observation is taken into consideration. Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis we isolate northward‐propagating low‐frequency (20–60 days; LF‐ISO) and northwestward propagating high‐frequency (10–20 days; HF‐ISO) ISOs from the daily ISM rainfall. Our results suggest that a large number of local onset (59%) and demise (62%) events occur during positive developing phases and positive decaying phases of two ISOs, respectively, with phase locking between LF‐ISO and HF‐ISO being particularly important. Local onset is largely associated with favorable phases of ISOs across India except for LF‐ISO over eastern India and HF‐ISO over western Ghats and central India (CI). We find that local demise is more coherent with the ISO phases, especially with HF‐ISO across the domain. We performed a case study to understand large‐scale association with the onset of the ISM over CI. In 44 of total 58 cases (1948–2005), when CI onset occurred during favorable LF‐ISO or HF‐ISO phase, they are either linked with a northward propagation of convection from the equator in LF‐ISO time scale (28 cases) or westward propagating structures from the western Pacific in HF‐ISO time scale (27 cases).

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Set and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Set and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Karmakar

Misra

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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The impact of varying seasonal lengths of the rainy seasons of India on its teleconnections with tropical sea surface temperatures

Misra

Bhardwaj

2020

Atmospheric Science Letters

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We present in this paper the interannual variability of seasonal temperature and rainfall in the Indian meteorological subdivisions (IMS) for boreal winter and summer seasons that take in to account the varying length of the seasons. Our study reveals that accounting for the variations in the length of the seasons produces stronger teleconnections between the seasonal anomalies of surface temperature and rainfall over India with corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Oceans (especially over the northern Indian and the equatorial Pacific Oceans) compared to the same teleconnections from fixed length seasons over the IMS. It should be noted that the IMS show significant spatial heterogeneity in these teleconnections.

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Detection, variability, and predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates: A review

Bombardi

Moron

Goodnight

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This article presents a review of the scientific literature on detection, sources of variability, and predictability of the timing of monsoons. The timing of monsoons is characterized by the beginning (commonly referred to as onset) and end (commonly referred to as demise, cessation, retreat, or withdrawal) dates of the summer monsoons. The main methods used to detect the timing of monsoons are divided into two categories: local‐scale methods and regional to large‐scale methods. The sources of variability of the timing of monsoons are also separated into two categories: local‐scale and large‐scale sources. Finally, the article presents a summary of the literature on the predictability of the timing of monsoons using both dynamical and statistical approaches. We show that all methods are parameterized in some way. A comparison between two different methods shows that while there might be large differences in the definition of onset and demise dates at the local level, spatial aggregation usually reduces the noise and enhances the regional monsoonal signal, which may be predictable.

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Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

Cited by 36 publications

References 41 publications

The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon

The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon

The impact of varying seasonal lengths of the rainy seasons of India on its teleconnections with tropical sea surface temperatures

Detection, variability, and predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates: A review

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