Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Cerqua, Augusto; Stefano, Roberta Di; Letta, Marco; Miccoli, Sara

doi:10.1007/s00148-021-00857-y

Cited by 34 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…For that reason, comparison between the COVID-19 caseload and birth numbers was not feasible. Instead, excess mortality is considered the more reliable measure of the impact of the pandemic ( Leon et al , 2020 ; Cerqua et al , 2021 ; Giattino et al , 2021 ). Based on this, we compared the monthly birth numbers with the excess mortality in 14 European countries.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Excess mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts birth numbers in European countries

2022

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Study question How did the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affect live birth numbers in Europe? SUMMARY ANSWER In 14 European countries with validated data sets on live birth numbers during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality was inversely correlated with live birth numbers. What is known already Since March 2020, in order to minimise spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and reducing strain on the health care systems, many national authorities have imposed containments and restricted both indoor and outdoor recreational activities. Historical events, such as electricity blackouts, have repeatedly been shown to exert incremental effects on birth numbers. Study design, size, duration We evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the containments on reproduction and birth numbers in 14 European countries with complete and validated data sets, until March 2021. Participants/Materials, setting, methods The national demographic offices of 20 European countries were requested to provide the monthly birth numbers from 2015 to March 2021. Fourteen countries provided those data. Taking into account seasonal variations, the live birth numbers were compared with excess mortality at two different time intervals during the pandemic. Main results and the role of chance Nine months after the initiation of containments in many European countries, 11 of 14 European countries (78.5%) experienced a decline in live birth numbers, ranging between -0.5% and -11.4%. The decline in live birth numbers was most pronounced in eight European countries with the highest degree of excess mortality. From January to March 2021, live birth numbers continued to decline in five of eight European countries with high excess mortality, whereas live births started to recover in eight of 14 countries (57.1%). Limitations, reasons for caution The live birth numbers of some key European countries were not available. Wider implications of the findings The demographic changes linked to the COVID-19 pandemic may add to the overall socioeconomic consequences, most particularly in those countries with pre-existing reduced reproduction rates. Study Funding/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study did not receive specific funding. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. Trial registration number Not applicable.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Excess mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts birth numbers in European countries

2022

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“…Estimates of excess mortality from all causes are heterogeneous across the country with dramatic increases in northern geographical areas, but there remain no figures of net mortality in central and southern Italy. Figures are periodically updated by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and the National Institute of Health (ISS), and several studies estimated the excess total mortality in Italy [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ]. However, a few studies have been published on mortality data by specific cause of death [ 12 , 13 , 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy

Perotti¹,

Bertuccio

Cacitti

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The COVID-19 pandemic had an unfavorable impact on overall mortality in Italy, with the strongest consequences in northern Italy. Scant data are available on cause-specific mortality. This study aims at investigating the impact of the pandemic on the overall and cause-specific mortality in one province in northern Italy, Pavia. We linked individual-level administrative data (i.e., death certification and population data) from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) in Pavia province between 2015 and 2020. We computed age-standardized mortality rates (Italian population 2011) by cause, sex, and calendar year, and computed the rate ratio and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals to compare rates in 2020 versus 2015–2019. The 2020 excess total mortality in Pavia was 24% in men and 25% in women, reaching rates of 1272.6/100,000 and 1304.4/100,000, respectively. Significant excesses were found for infectious and parasitic diseases, excluding COVID-19 (about +30% in both sexes); respiratory system diseases (44% in men; 30% in women); and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease among men (24%). Reductions were reported for neoplasms (−14% in men); cerebrovascular diseases (−25% in men); and ischemic diseases (−13% in women), but also for transport accidents in men. COVID-19 was the third cause of death in both sexes with rates of 274.9/100,000 men (859 total deaths) and 213.9/100,000 women (758 total deaths). Excess mortality in Pavia was higher than Italy but lower than Lombardy. Increases in mortality from causes related to infectious and respiratory diseases can likely be explained by underdiagnosed deaths from COVID-19.

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“…We employ data on excess mortality by LMAs taken from Cerqua et al. (2020) ; these data were estimated through Machine Learning techniques in order to generate a counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19 rather than merely comparing mortality of 2020 with that of previous years, thus obtaining more reliable mortality data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mobility in times of pandemics: Evidence on the spread of COVID19 in Italy's labour market areas

Ascani

Faggian

Montresor

et al. 2021

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

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Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Cited by 34 publications

References 61 publications

Excess mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts birth numbers in European countries

Excess mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts birth numbers in European countries

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy

Mobility in times of pandemics: Evidence on the spread of COVID19 in Italy's labour market areas

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