Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain

Abstract

Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO 2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.

Response of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Yield to the Increasing Weather Fluctuations in a Continental Region of Four-Season Climate

“…Similarly, increases in the RSE were reported for winter wheat grain yields for the periods of 1961-1998 and 1999-2017 in France, 1961-1999 and 2000-2017 in Germany, and 1961-1996 and 1997-2017 in the United Kingdom [56]. In the case of substantial inter-annual yield variation, local-scale studies are needed to evaluate the uncertainties in yield predictions [25].…”

“…For the vegetation period of winter wheat, the increase of ET 0 is lower than for the whole year, which makes winter wheat production more favorable than summer crops. Considering the global radiation too, yield variation between sites, for example, in Great Britain, was found to follow that of seasonal evapotranspiration [25]. For an area with a continental climate, they proposed the increased probability of the adverse effect resulting from dry season from sowing to maturity, heat stress at anthesis, and adverse conditions during sowing.…”

“…In India, reduced wheat yield in areas with mean seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures was projected in excess of 27 • C and 13 • C, respectively, despite CO 2 fertilization benefits, by 2050 [24]. For cereal-growing areas of Great Britain, climate change is expected to negatively impact the level of evapotranspiration, and the moderate winter wheat yield gain caused by CO 2 fertilization may be lost after 2050 [25]. For Germany, representing the continental region of Europe, using four different crop models, a 9% yield increase was predicted under rain-fed conditions by 2050, if 540 ppm CO 2 concentration is reached [26].…”

Optimal control of organic matter applications

“…Over the eight years of data, yields of winter wheat varied greatly from year to year, almost certainly as a result of the different weather in each year. Van der Pauw (1962) demonstrated the relationship between the loss of N from leaching and reduction in yield in certain crops resulting from winter rainfall, but other factors such as solar radiation, temperature, and disease are also almost certainly responsible for the interannual variability (Addy et al, 2020(Addy et al, , 2021Putelat et al, 2021).…”

Experimental evaluation of biological regeneration of arable soil: The effects of grass-clover leys and arbuscular mycorrhizal inoculants on wheat growth, yield, and shoot pathology

“…These soil and biological effects on crops are compounded by an increasing frequency of excessive rainfall and drought events, which are linked to climate change (Lowe, 2018 ; Slater et al, 2021 ). Extreme weather challenges to arable farming are expected to intensify, with further potential yield declines of 20% due to water stress being predicted (Putelat et al, 2021 ). In addition, rising costs of chemicals and fertiliser (Baffes and Koh, 2021 ) due to the escalation of prices of natural gas used for ammonia production, and the depletion of global high-grade rock phosphorus reserves (Alewell et al, 2020 ), puts increasing pressure on farmers' tight economic margins (FAO, 2022 ).…”