Local housing price index analysis in wind-disaster-prone areas

Abstract

This study examines the effect of severe wind events on the mean and variance of housing price indices of six metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) that are vulnerable to hurricanes and/or tornadoes. The research focuses on three areas that experienced significant tornado activity (Fort Worth-Arlington, Nashville, and Oklahoma City) and three hurricane-prone areas (Corpus Christi, Miami, and Wilmington, NC). An econometric time series model that captures the housing market responses to severe windstorms is utilized. The model estimates changes in the local housing price index (HPI) as a function of several control variables as well as dichotomous variables that correspond to the tornadoes and hurricanes. As expected, the statistical findings indicate an immediate but short-lived decline in housing prices following a tornado or hurricane. Somewhat surprising is the result that the impact on the housing market is remarkably consistent whether the wind event was a hurricane or a tornado. Hurricanes and tornadoes are vastly different in terms of the point probabilities of a hit, the scope of the affected area and the lead time that supports last minute preparation to mitigate damage. It appears that the market response to destruction of real property does not distinguish between the types of wind event that produced the damage to the region. Results suggest that windstorms result in an immediate one-half to two percent reduction in total MSA housing value. This corresponds to a range of $34 million to $580 million in lost housing value. Estimates indicate some differences in how long market values 2006 continue to decline in the periods following the wind event; however, most of the decline occurs within four quarters after the windstorm. These differences can be attributed to the particular time series characteristics of the specific housing markets and their respective housing price indices. The market serves the purpose of integrating and normalizing the losses. In so doing the market provides a metrica method for calibrating and comparing structural damage caused by different phenomenon.

The Impact of Hurricanes on Housing Prices: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Cities

“…One may want to note that while the latter two effects are not directly related to wind, the extent of damage to these is highly correlated with the wind speed of a hurricane. Ewing et al (2005) used a simply incidence dummy to investigate the impact of hurricanes on local housing prices. However, the extent of their destruction is unlikely to be uniform across localities, but will depend on the position relative to the eye, the maximum wind speed, direction of movement, and local characteristics, amongst other things.…”

Earthquakes and House Prices: Evidence from Oklahoma

“…Risk preferences for earthquakes and tornadoes may be similar for a given individual in the housing market, and tornado risk may also be capitalized into house prices. Ewing et al (2007) find temporary, 0.5 to 2.0 percent decreases in local housing prices following large tornado events. Simmons and Sutter (2007) find house sale price premiums in excess of tornado shelter costs for houses with shelters in Oklahoma City.…”

The Economic Effects of Climate Change Adaptation Measures: Evidence from Miami-Dade County and New York City

“…With respect to storm idiosyncrasies, hurricane characteristics can also play a significant role in housing market dynamics. Ewing, et al [31] discovered that windstorms adversely influence housing prices by 1.5% to 2% promptly after the storm events. On the contrary, Meyer, Baker, Broad, Czajkowski and Orlove [29] found that wind speed of hurricanes is overestimated while the flooding is underestimated because the current hurricane warning system (i.e., the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) largely relies on wind power.…”