Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

Yin, Xingyao; Móra, Péter; Peng, Kunling; Wang, Yu Cang; Weatherley, Dion

doi:10.1007/s00024-002-8745-4

Cited by 56 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is therefore not by coincidence that the scaling relation between the critical region size and the magnitude of the final event (Bowman et al, 1998), estimated from the time-tofailure function model, agrees with that estimated from the load-unload response ratio model (Yin et al, 2002). The empirical scaling relation found by Bowman et al (1998) can be approximated in terms of the critical region radius R c and the rupture area S of the final event as follows (Rundle et al, 2000):…”

Section: Physical Modeling For Intermediate-term Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…LURR thus defined represents a measure of the proximity to the critical state, and high LURR values (> 1) indicate that the region is in close proximity to the critical state that has a potential to cause a major earthquake. Values for LURR have been calculated for various regions of different tectonic regimes (Yin et al, 2000(Yin et al, , 2002, and the results indicate that the model provides a useful means for intermediate-term forecasting (Yin et al, 2000(Yin et al, , 2002.…”

Section: Physical Modeling For Intermediate-term Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

Ohnaka

2014

Earth Planet Sp

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A thorough discussion is made on what the rational constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid facts observed in the laboratory. From this standpoint, it is concluded that the constitutive law should be a slip-dependent law with parameters that may depend on slip rate or time. With the long-term goal of establishing a rational methodology of forecasting large earthquakes, the entire process of one cycle for a typical, large earthquake is modeled, and a comprehensive scenario that unifies individual models for intermediate-and short-term (immediate) forecasts is presented within the framework based on the slip-dependent constitutive law and the earthquake cycle model. The earthquake cycle includes the phase of accumulation of elastic strain energy with tectonic loading (phase II), and the phase of rupture nucleation at the critical stage where an adequate amount of the elastic strain energy has been stored (phase III). Phase II plays a critical role in physical modeling of intermediate-term forecasting, and phase III in physical modeling of short-term (immediate) forecasting. The seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are inhomogeneous, and some of the physical quantities inherent in earthquake ruptures exhibit scale-dependence. It is therefore critically important to incorporate the properties of inhomogeneity and physical scaling, in order to construct realistic, unified scenarios with predictive capability. The scenario presented may be significant and useful as a necessary first step for establishing the methodology for forecasting large earthquakes.

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Section: Physical Modeling For Intermediate-term Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Physical Modeling For Intermediate-term Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

Ohnaka

2014

Earth Planet Sp

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“…where M denotes the magnitude of the earthquake (YIN et al, 2002;2004a). In earthquake prediction practice, the equation can also be adopted to evaluate the magnitude of an earthquake.…”

Section: Predictive Applicability Of State Vectormentioning

confidence: 99%

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

Yin

Zhu³

et al. 2006

Pure appl. geophys.

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Abstract-The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

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“…Till date we have made tremendous achievement in real earthquake prediction practice using LURR, especially for medium term earthquake prediction (e.g. one-year time scale) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The peak point of LURR and its significance

Yin

Zhang

et al. 2010

Concurrency and Computation

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SUMMARYThe Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) value fluctuates around one during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then rises and reaches its peak point before the occurrence of a strong earthquake; the strong earthquake however does not onset at that time, but after the peak point LURR decreases sharply at the eve of the main shock before the final event outbreak. Thus, the peak point of LURR is ahead of the occurrence of an earthquake. We denote the lead time as T 2 . The discovery of peak point for LURR and the relationship between T 2 and magnitude M is of great significance as the peak point is usually easy to determine and then we can predict the occurrence time for the coming event according to Equation (3) so that we can enhance the precision of time for earthquake prediction in terms of LURR from 'year' scale to 'month' scale. The variation of LURR around the Wenchuan earthquake and its lesson to us are depicted in the paper.

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Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

Cited by 56 publications

References 25 publications

Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The peak point of LURR and its significance

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