Load predictions: vulnerability of micro‐grids based on renewable energies due to increasing population and individual demand

Abstract

Small-scale systems are vulnerable to changes. The development of solution strategies for changing conditions should, therefore, be considered from the outset in planning. For planners and installers of mini-grids for rural villages without grid connection, first of all, the question of the expected electricity demand arises. So far, this is determined primarily by interviewing the population. However, studies have shown that there are still major differences between the power demand estimated and the real load after electrification. Reinforcing here is the inadequate assessment of load development through immigration and increased prosperity. On the basis of a currently developing mini-grid in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, we could show that a load increase of ∼60% within 10 years is to be expected. The following possibilities were outlined as possible ways of counteracting the increase in load: (i) communicating with the population, i.e. on energy efficiency to raise awareness and understanding, (ii) early planning of capacity building and identification of key performance parameters to trigger the expansion based on local socio-cultural conditions and grid supporting qualities. An adequate database for the initial electrification and power development should also be established and available on open-source basis for researchers, developers, communities, and installers.