Load Forecasting for the Moroccan Electricity Sector

Abstract

For the three timescales described a total of eight methodologies were tested (three for longterm, three for medium-term, and two for short-term), six of which were included in this report. These methodologies were linear and multivariable regression on the annual (long-term) and hourly (long-and medium-term) basis, load clustering (medium-term), and two auto regressive models for short-term analysis.Based on long-term analysis, depending on growth scenarios, Morocco can expect an annual peak demand in 2030 ranging approximately 8-11 GW with annual energy consumption ranging 55-77 TWh. This is based on an assumed annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5%-4.0%. Analysis was conducted for PV deployment between 1-7 GW and resulting net load curves are forecast. See Section 9.2. Additional work will need to be done to evaluate system integration potential, depending on the geospatial placement of PV and other renewable energy (RE) and non-RE deployments.