LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP): modelling the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on delivery of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria indicators in Uganda

Abstract

Background Disruptions in malaria control due to COVID-19 mitigation measures were predicted to increase malaria morbidity and mortality in Africa substantially. In Uganda, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are distributed nationwide every 3–4 years, but the 2020–2021 campaign was altered because of COVID-19 restrictions so that the timing of delivery of new nets was different from the original plans made by the National Malaria Control Programme. Methods A transmission dynamics modelling exercise was conducted to explore how the altered delivery of LLINs in 2020–2021 impacted malaria burden in Uganda. Data were available on the planned LLIN distribution schedule for 2020–2021, and the actual delivery. The transmission model was used to simulate 100 health sub-districts, and parameterized to match understanding of local mosquito bionomics, net use estimates, and seasonal patterns based on data collected in 2017–2019 during a cluster-randomized trial (LLINEUP). Two scenarios were compared; simulated LLIN distributions matching the actual delivery schedule, and a comparable scenario simulating LLIN distributions as originally planned. Model parameters were otherwise matched between simulations. Results Approximately 70% of the study population received LLINs later than scheduled in 2020–2021, although some areas received LLINs earlier than planned. The model indicates that malaria incidence in 2020 was substantially higher in areas that received LLINs late. In some areas, early distribution of LLINs appeared less effective than the original distribution schedule, possibly due to attrition of LLINs prior to transmission peaks, and waning LLIN efficacy after distribution. On average, the model simulations predicted broadly similar overall mean malaria incidence in 2021 and 2022. After accounting for differences in cluster population size and LLIN distribution dates, no substantial increase in malaria burden was detected. Conclusions The model results suggest that the disruptions in the 2020–2021 LLIN distribution campaign in Uganda did not substantially increase malaria burden in the study areas.