The article highlights heterogeneous patterns of pastoral development in Ethiopia.The key question is to what extent current changes may be interpreted as 'sustainable development pathways' in which resilience of livelihoods and natural resource bases are maintained under conditions of stress, or rather as unsustainable 'dead ends', characterised by the inability of pastoral groups to cope with and adapt to externally induced changes. The article argues that the answer depends largely on the state's commitment to pastoral development. Empirical evidence from two case studies among Afar and Karrayu clans in the eastern lowlands of Ethiopia suggests that in the past, external interventions by government agencies and large-scale irrigation schemes have been detrimental to pastoral livelihoods. It is concluded that the future of pastoralism in Ethiopia will be determined by divergent but partly complimentary development pathways, and by attempts to give pastoralists a voice in decision-making over their own development.Cet article met en lumie`re l'he´te´roge´ne´ite´des modes de de´veloppement pastoral en É thiopie. La question cle´est de de´terminer si les e´volutions actuelles peuvent eˆtre interpre´te´es comme des 'voies vers un de´veloppement durable' dans lesquelles les moyens de subsistance et les ressources naturelles peuvent eˆtre maintenus malgre´la pression subie, ou plutoˆt comme des 'impasses' insoutenables caracte´rise´es par une incapacite´des communaute´s pastorales a`faire face et a`s'adapter aux changements exoge`nes. L'article montre que la re´ponse a`cette question de´pend largement du niveau d'engagement de l'É tat dans le de´veloppement pastoral. Deux e´tudes de cas sur les populations Afar et Karrayu des basses terres orientales de l'É thiopie montrent empiriquement que, dans le passe´, les interventions externes des agences gouvernementales ainsi que les programmes d'irrigation a`grande e´chelle ont eu des effets pre´judiciables sur les moyens de subsistance pastoraux. En conclusion, l'avenir du pastoralisme en É thiopie sera de´termine´par des voies de de´veloppement divergentes mais en partie comple´mentaires et de´pendra d'une volonte´de donner aux communaute´s pastorales une voix dans les prises de de´cisions concernant leur propre de´veloppement.