Live trial performance of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System – Research Prototype†

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Background Historical records of fire weather phenomena provide valuable insights into spatial and temporal trends which can inform further research and are important tools for planning. Aims We outline a 19-year climatology of a Research Prototype (AFDRSRP), of the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System, documenting its spatial and temporal characteristics. Methods The analysis utilises the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s high-resolution reanalysis suite (BARRA), together with fuel data provided by Australian fire agencies. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the AFDRSRP. Distributions are categorised by fuel type, analysing relative variability across time and space. Key results The results validate the broad behaviour of the new system and provide insight into the variation of fire danger throughout Australia, adding detail to the understanding of timing of peak fire danger both diurnally and annually. Conclusions While the AFDRSRP differs from the operational system in its fire danger rating categories and tuning of algorithms, it nonetheless provides useful insights into the operational implementation. Implications These results will be essential for planning during fire seasons.

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Australian Fire Danger Rating System Research Prototype: a climatology†

Sauvage,

Fox-Hughes,

Matthews

et al. 2024

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“…The AFDRS RP was found to accurately forecast fire danger 56% of the time compared with 43% by the McArthur system. The live trial highlighted a tendency for the AFDRS RP to overpredict rather than underpredict fire danger (Grootemaat et al 2024).…”

Section: Overview Of the Australian Fire Danger Rating Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the southern fire season (October 2017-March 2018), a live trial evaluation of a Research Prototype version (AFDRS RP ) of the AFDRS was conducted to assess performance and reliability. The live trial demonstrated that a new national system was achievable and could provide clear community, economic and operational benefits (Grootemaat et al 2024). The AFDRS RP was subsequently endorsed by the Australian Government's MCPEM and moved to an implementation phase (Ministerial Council for Police and Emergency Management 2018) where additional practical components and local systems integration could be completed.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Australian Fire Danger Rating Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kenny et al (2024) describe a system for implementing fire behaviour calculations to forecast fire danger; 4. Grootemaat et al (2024) evaluate the performance of the AFDRS Research Prototype; and 5. Sauvage et al (2024) present a climatology of the AFDRS Research Prototype.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Australian Fire Danger Rating Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the 2017-2018 southern fire season in Australia, a live trial was completed to assess the performance and reliability of the AFDRS RP . Seventy-one participants representing fire and land management agencies from all Australian jurisdictions participated in the live trial, completing a total of 265 observation reports (Grootemaat et al 2024). The dataset was supplemented by 72 case study reports to expand conditions to also represent fires of significant consequence.…”

Section: Overview Of the Australian Fire Danger Rating Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System†

Hollis,

Matthews,

Fox-Hughes

et al. 2024

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Background Fire danger rating systems are used daily across Australia to support fire management operations and communications to the general public regarding potential fire danger. Aims In this paper, we introduce the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), providing a short historical account of fire danger rating in Australia as well as the requirements for an improved forecast system. Methods The AFDRS combines nationally consistent, spatially explicit fuel information with forecast weather and advanced fire behaviour models and knowledge to produce locally relevant ratings of fire behaviour potential. Key results A well-defined framework is essential for categorising and defining fire danger based on operational response, the potential for impact and observable characteristics of fire incidents. The AFDRS is modular, supporting continuous and incremental improvements and allowing upgrades to components in response to new science. Conclusions The AFDRS provides a new method to estimate fire danger based on the best available fire behaviour models, leading to potentially significant improvements in the way fire danger is calculated, forecast and interpreted. Implications The Australian Fire Danger Rating System was implemented in 2022, the most significant change to fire danger forecasting in Australia in more than 50 years.

A framework for defining fire danger to support fire management operations in Australia†

Hollis,

Matthews,

Anderson

et al. 2024

Self Cite

Background Development of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System began in 2017 with a project aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of a new fire danger rating system through a Research Prototype (AFDRSRP) that accounted for variability in Australian vegetation types, was nationally applicable, modular and open to continuous improvement. Aims In this manuscript, we identify and define transition points and categories for the AFDRSRP. We discuss user responses to the categorisation during a live trial evaluation of the AFDRSRP and reflect on limitations and potential improvements. Methods A review of available literature, broad consultation with stakeholders and reanalysis of fire impact data were used to determine suitable thresholds for categorising fire danger within the AFDRSRP. Key results Fire danger categories within the AFDRSRP reflect transitions in fire behaviour that result in application of different fire management strategies or are associated with variation in serious consequences and impacts. Conclusions The AFDRSRP incorporated the best available science, supported by a well-defined framework for categorising and defining fire danger making it suitable for application across Australian fire jurisdictions and range of fuel types. Implications The framework allows fire managers to assess the accuracy and appropriateness of forecasted fire danger.