Literature Review of Advanced Reactor Cost Estimates

Abou-Jaoude, Abdalla; Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Lin, Linyu; Larsen, Levi Morin; Epiney, Aaron; Worsham, Elizabeth Kirkpatrick

doi:10.2172/1986466

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Some SMR developers have released cost estimates for their designs, and various prior studies have compiled this type of data (Vegel and Quinn, 2017;EIRP, 2021;Stewart and Shirvan, 2022;Asuega et al, 2023;Steigerwald et al, 2023). Furthermore, various meta studies on the cost ranges of SMRs have developed results on expected SMR costs with uncertainty measures (Petti et al, 2018;SMR Start, 2021;EIA, 2022;Stein et al, 2022;Abou Jaoude et al, 2023).…”

Section: Capital and Oandm Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

Larsen,

Biegel,

Guaita

et al. 2024

Front. Nucl. Eng.

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The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

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Section: Capital and Oandm Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

Larsen,

Biegel,

Guaita

et al. 2024

Front. Nucl. Eng.

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“…Previous work in this space includes an array of top-down meta-studies where authors have taken high level overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates and aggregated the values to produce OCC ranges (Abou Jaoude 2023, Steigerwald et al 2023, Asuega, Limb, and Quinn 2023, Breakthrough Institute 2022, Vegel and Quinn 2017, EIRP 2021. Other existing studies have used a more bottoms-up approach, where authors look at specific costs of reactors and then aggregate them up to OCC (EIA 2022, SMR Start 2021, Petti 2018.…”

Section: Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Abou-Jaoude,

Lohse,

Larsen

et al. 2024

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“…Nuclear- Several studies have attempted to quantify the potential costs of advanced reactors for terrestrial deployment [126,127,128,129]. Most recently, an Idaho National Laboratory (INL) study conducted a comprehensive survey of existing literature to assess recommended ranges for nuclear cost estimates [130]. These overnight costs mainly consist of construction, equipment, installation, indirect, and commissioning costs (decommissioning costs are not typically considered here).…”

Section: » Pennsylvania Bureau Of Radiation Protectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can be helpful in the context of demonstrations to understand the two key drivers for reducing costs: low FOAK costs and fast learning. Abou-Jaoude et al provide a survey of the applicable literature and estimated that suitable learning rates for nuclear applications would be around 5, 10, and 15% for low, medium, and high estimates [130]. As shown in Figure 39, the cost relative to the FOAK can drop by as much as 30% after 100 units with a 5% learning rate.…”

Section: » Pennsylvania Bureau Of Radiation Protectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Configurations of Commercial Advanced Nuclear-Maritime Applications

Dowling,

Mukhi,

Abou Jaoude

et al. 2023

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Literature Review of Advanced Reactor Cost Estimates

Cited by 6 publications

References 14 publications

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Configurations of Commercial Advanced Nuclear-Maritime Applications

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