Listeriosis risk assessment: Simulation modelling and “what if” scenarios applied to consumption of ready-to-eat products in a Spanish population

The microbiology of cold smoked salmon

“…An important lack of data has been found in the doseeresponse model, due to the assumption that all L. monocytogenes strains have a similar virulence, as illustrated by Lindqvist and West€ o€ o (2000). But as reviewed by Garrido, Garcia-Jalon, Vitas, and Sanaa (2010), most cases of listeriosis are caused by serotype 4b, while food isolates mainly belong to serotype 1/2. However, although it cannot be attributed to foodborne disease, one must not trivialize the fact that recent epidemiologic studies show an increase in the incidence of listeriosis (Goulet et al, 2008;Siegman-Igra et al, 2002).…”

“…There is a general consensus that the most effective means of decreasing the risk of foodborne illness due to consumption of CSS (and most other minimally heath treated RTE products) is by controlling both the temperature of refrigerators (at both retail and domestic levels) and the time of storage (Ellouze, Gauchi, & Augustin, 2011;Garrido et al, 2010;Pouillot et al, 2007). Ellouze, Gauchi, and Augustin (2010) ranked 'duration of the storage in the domestic refrigerator (dR)' as the most important factor to prevent unacceptable proliferation of L. monocytogenes in vacuum packaged CSS, followed by 'the physiological state of L. monocytogenes', 'temperature during storage in the refrigerator (TR)', 'optimum specific growth rate', 'duration of storage at retail', and 'temperature of storage at retail'.…”

“…These results corroborate earlier studies by Pouillot et al (2007), which in addition found that those CSS products that were contaminated by particularly psychrotrophic strains of L. monocytogenes, and those by a particularly mesophilic background flora constituted increased risk. Hence, the most effective way to reduce illness will be controlling both the temperature of domestic refrigerators and the time of storage (Ellouze et al, 2011;Garrido et al, 2010). When the time-temperature relationship recommended (based on modelling studies) by Garrido et al (2010) is maintained until the time of consumption (maximum 7 days at 4.5 C), the number of cases clearly decrease (in all RTE products considered).…”

“…Hence, the most effective way to reduce illness will be controlling both the temperature of domestic refrigerators and the time of storage (Ellouze et al, 2011;Garrido et al, 2010). When the time-temperature relationship recommended (based on modelling studies) by Garrido et al (2010) is maintained until the time of consumption (maximum 7 days at 4.5 C), the number of cases clearly decrease (in all RTE products considered). Thus, Garrido et al (2010) argued that the best risk management of listeriosis in RTE products is to improve food safety educational programs.…”

“…When the time-temperature relationship recommended (based on modelling studies) by Garrido et al (2010) is maintained until the time of consumption (maximum 7 days at 4.5 C), the number of cases clearly decrease (in all RTE products considered). Thus, Garrido et al (2010) argued that the best risk management of listeriosis in RTE products is to improve food safety educational programs. Traceability devices may make consumers eat the exposed products more rapidly thus reducing the number of unacceptable products significantly (Ellouze et al, 2011).…”