Links between the Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards on a Tropical Pacific Island

Terry, James P.; Raj, Rishi; Kostaschuk, Ray

doi:10.1353/psc.2001.0026

Cited by 26 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…5). Contrary to Kostaschuk et al (2001) and Terry et al (2001), who determined from a 30-year flow record that the peak discharge of TC-induced Rewa River floods was inversely related to the SOI, this study, using a much longer time series, could find no significant relationship between the peak heights of TC-induced Ba River floods and SOI (Fig. 5).…”

Section: El Niño-southern Oscillationcontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…1). Although Terry et al (2001) found the data useful for interpreting controls on low river flow, investigations in the course of this study showed that the record has little value for the analysis of floods: of the eight major floods recorded downstream , reliable flood discharges are available at Toge for only two-data gaps were found for four floods and probable data errors for another two. The Toge gauge has been washed away on several occasions and in 1999 the recorder stopped working as flood waters rose.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Figure 5 demonstrates that major flooding of the Ba River can occur at any value of the SOI and it is difficult to see the SOI being of significant value for flood forecasting at Ba (cf. Terry et al, 2001).…”

Section: El Niño-southern Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

Yeo¹,

Blong²,

McAneney³

2007

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Correspondence from a long-established sugar mill provided the opportunity to construct the longest flood series for a river in Fiji-the Ba River in northwest Viti Levu-from 1892 to 2002. Flood waters reached the mill floor every four years on average. Contrary to common lore, this study could detect no increase in the frequency of major floods over the course of the 20th century, despite intensification of land use and siltation of the river channel over that time. Large, slow-moving tropical cyclones situated northwest of the valley have generated large floods, but so too have tropical rainstorms. Major floods have occurred in months when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was both negative and positive, suggesting that the SOI is a poor indicator of flood potential for the Ba River.Key words Fiji; flood frequency; SOI; temporal trends; tropical cyclones Crues aux Fidji: conclusions tirées de 100 ans de données historiquesRésumé La correspondance épistolaire établie depuis une vieille sucrerie a permis de construire la plus longue série de données relatives aux crues d'un fleuve aux Fidji-le Fleuve Ba au nord ouest de Viti Levu-de 1892 à 2002. Les crues atteignaient en moyenne une fois tous les quatre ans le plancher de l'usine. A l'encontre des idées reçues, cette étude n'a décelé aucune augmentation de la fréquence des crues importantes au cours du vingtième siècle, malgré l'intensification de l'utilisation des terres et l'envasement du chenal du fleuve pendant cette période. Des cyclones tropicaux étendus et lents localisés au nord ouest de la vallée ont généré des crues importantes, aussi bien que des orages tropicaux. D'importantes crues ont eu lieu lors de mois pendant lesquels le SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) était indifféremment négatif et positif, suggérant que le SOI est un faible indicateur du potentiel de crue du Fleuve Ba.

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Section: El Niño-southern Oscillationcontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

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Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

Yeo¹,

Blong²,

McAneney³

2007

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…For example, Kane (1999) investigated characteristics and precipitation effects of the El Niño of 1997-1998. However, some of the previous research suggests that the ENSO is the most significant factor causing global hydroclimatic variability, especially in equatorial Pacific areas (Kahya and Dracup 1993, Allan 2000, Terry et al 2001, and a major controlling factor of inter-annual climatic variability in tropical regions like Indonesia (Aldrian and Susanto 2003, McBride et al 2003, Annas et al 2007). In Indonesia, ENSO events predominantly cause a reduction in rainfall that results in a longer dry season with greater water evaporation and a shorter rainy season with greater surface runoff.…”

Section: Enso-rainfall Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Susilo

Yamamoto

Imai

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.Key words ENSO; rainfall characteristics; tropical peatland areas L'effet du phénomène ENSO sur les caractéristiques des précipitations dans les zones de tourbières tropicales du Kalimantan central (Indonésie) Résumé L'effet de l'oscillation australe El Niño (ENSO) sur les caractéristiques des précipitations dans les zones de tourbières tropicales du Kalimantan central, en Indonésie, est mis en évidence. Nous avons utilisé pour cette recherche des données pluviométriques recueillies entre 1978 et 2008. Les résultats suggèrent une relation entre les événements El Niño et la tendance des précipitations observées dans la zone d'étude. D'autres analyses montrent que le phénomène El Niño a un effet plus fort sur les précipitations qu'un évènement La Niña. Les événements El Niño ont également été corrélés avec l'augmentation du nombre de jours de moins de 1 mm de pluie pendant la saison sèche. L'analyse révèle que l'impact du phénomène El Niño sur les précipitations en saison sèche s'intensifie chaque année. En outre, les événements El Niño ne sont pas les seuls facteurs qui affectent les tendances pluviométriques dans la zone observée. D'autres facteurs, tels la déforestation, peuvent également influencer la tendance.

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“…Hydrological studies in Fiji on ENSO-related storms demonstrate that cyclones during El Niño years produce higher amounts of stream discharge with subsequent flooding (Terry et al 1998(Terry et al , 2001. Substantial amounts of precipitation over brief time periods results in soil saturation and hazardous stream overwash (Terry et al 2001: 276-279).…”

Section: Environmental Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating shellfish deposition and landscape history at the Natia Beach site, Fiji

Morrison¹,

Cochrane²

2008

Journal of Archaeological Science

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Abstract:The relationship between environmental variation and subsistence practices is a central point of discussion in much Oceanic archaeology. While human predation can significantly reduce prey populations, environmental variation also contributes to reductions in prey abundance, possibly leading to increased human competition and resource scarcity. At the Natia Beach Site, Nacula Island, Fiji, geoarchaeological evidence suggests that coastal progradation began soon after initial occupation of the coastal plain. Additionally, at approximately 650 BP a marked increase in clay and silt deposition occurred. Changes in coastal geomorphology may be explained by landscape response to regional Mid-Holocene sea level fall combined with human induced soil erosion due to upland settlement. Smaller scale environmental changes associated with climate variability may have also played a role. Additionally, landscape change appears to have had a measurable impact on local nearshore mollusks that are sensitive to high levels of water turbidity. Minor evidence of human exploitation is observable in this shellfish assemblage, although changes in predation pressure may have allowed shellfish populations to recover. Increased ceramic diversity and fortified settlements also appear at approximately 650 BP on Nacula and other parts of Fiji. The suite of changes at Natia may be explained by processes of regional and local environmental changes, and human adaptation in terms of subsistence, spatial organization, and competition.3

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Links between the Southern Oscillation Index and Hydrological Hazards on a Tropical Pacific Island

Cited by 26 publications

References 16 publications

Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Investigating shellfish deposition and landscape history at the Natia Beach site, Fiji

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