Linking the storm cells position and high values of instability indices – a case study in the southeast of Western Siberia

Abstract

Improving the identification accuracy of spatial distribution of hazardous convective phenomena has relevant meaning for territories are not covered by lightning detection systems. We perform comparison on set of instances of registered lightning discharges by a Boltek single-point lightning detector with spatial instability fields. To determine the areas of atmospheric instability over the southeast of Western Siberia, Total Totals and K-index have been used. Values for the indices were calculated from balloon sounding data and ERA5 reanalysis. The results demonstrate an acceptable spatial agreement between the fields with high instability indices according to ERA5 reanalysis data and actual positions of thunderstorm cells. A validation of ERA5 indices values with upper-air data showed that a smaller consistency error correspond to Total Totals index. Therefore, to predict the spatial position of convective clouds producing thunderstorms over the southeast of Western Siberia, it is promising to use Total Totals index, which is calculated using either aerological measurements or satellite remote sensing data.