Linking the Open Water Area of the North Open Water Polynya to Climatic Parameters using a Multiple Linear Regression Prediction Model

April, André; Montpetit, Benoît; Langlois, D.

doi:10.1080/07055900.2019.1598332

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The Nares Strait wind field plays an important role in modulating the export of thick multi-year sea ice from the Last Ice Area situated to its north as well as in maintaining the NOW located at its southern end [Barber et al, 2001;Samelson et al, 2006]. There has been a significant loss of multi-year ice from the Arctic in recent years [Kwok, 2018] as well as an increase in ice export along Nares Strait [Moore et al, 2021] and there is also evidence that the NOW is increasing in area [April et al, 2019]. The remoteness of the Nares Strait region has limited our ability to characterize the wind field thereby leading to uncertainty in its role in the changes to the ice in the region that are now being observed in the region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Model Resolution on the Representation of the Wind Field Along Nares Strait

Moore

2021

Preprint

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Nares Strait is a major pathway along which multi-year sea ice leaves the Arctic, an ice class that seen a recent dramatic reduction in extent. The winds that blow along the strait play an important role in modulating this ice export as well as in establishing the Arctic’s largest and most productive polynya, the North Water, that forms at its southern terminus. However, its remote location has limited knowledge of the winds along the strait. Here we use automatic weather station from Hans Island, in the middle of the strait, to assess the ability of a set of atmospheric analyses with a common lineage but with varying horizontal resolution to represent the variability in the wind field. We find that the flow is highly bidirectional, consistent with topographic channeling, with the highest wind speeds from the north and that a model resolution of ~9km is required to capture the observed variability. The wind field at Hans Island is also found to be representative of variability in the flow along much of Nares Strait.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is evidence that the ice bridges along Nares Strait are becoming less stable [Moore et al, 2021] and that the area of the NOW is increasing [April et al, 2019]. There is also evidence that anomalous winds play a role in the collapse of these arches [Moore and McNeil, 2018].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Model Resolution on the Representation of the Wind Field Along Nares Strait

Moore

2021

Preprint

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“…Implicit in the reliance on internal variability, however, is the absence of a control cloud state without surface‐atmosphere interaction, as the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean are coupled and continually interact. In this study, we exploit the periodic opening and closing of the North Water polynya (NoW; April et al., 2019; Barber et al., 2001; Vincent, 2019) as a natural laboratory to assess the cloud response to a rapid, near‐step change in sea ice cover, relative to the much longer timescale associated with seasonal changes to sea ice cover.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Cloud Response to a Perturbation in Sea Ice Concentration: The North Water Polynya

2021

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Of the many potential responses to reduced Arctic sea ice cover, the modification of the local thermodynamic environment and formation of clouds represents one of the most consequential. Clouds modify the Arctic climate system evolution through cloud-induced turbulent mixing of the lower tropospheric temperature and humidity structure, modulation of the atmospheric radiative heating rate, precipitation,

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“…Considering that the number of daily blood collections is related to the number of outpatient visits, we choose the number of daily outpatients as the influence variable for the regression prediction. 24 In order to further improve the accuracy of the prediction model and find more feature information, it is necessary to use the combined model to complete the final prediction. The variables in the model are defined as follows:…”

Section: Prediction Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mixed time series approaches for forecasting the daily number of hospital blood collections

Zhang

Zhao

Mou

et al. 2021

Health Planning & Management

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Purpose: Provide new methods to predict the number of hospital blood collections. Methods:The registered outpatients and blood collection patients in a large hospital in China in the period from March 2018 to April 2019 were enrolled in the study. Firstly, we analyzed the time series characteristics of the daily blood collection patients and their correlation with the number of daily outpatients. Then, we used the time series ARIMA and linear regression methods to build the periodic trend model of the blood collections number prediction and the regression prediction model with the number of registered outpatients as an independent variable. Finally, we built a combined prediction model considering mixed time series to predict the number of blood collections in the hospital. Results:The combined prediction model has a higher accuracy and can better explore the characteristics of the number of blood collections compared with other models.It can also give some suggestions for a reasonable blood collection management. Conclusion:The combined prediction model of mixed time series can reflect the change in the blood collections number due to the influence of internal and external factors and can realize the blood collection prediction with a higher accuracy providing a new method for the prediction of the blood collections number.

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Linking the Open Water Area of the North Open Water Polynya to Climatic Parameters using a Multiple Linear Regression Prediction Model

Cited by 8 publications

References 13 publications

Impact of Model Resolution on the Representation of the Wind Field Along Nares Strait

Impact of Model Resolution on the Representation of the Wind Field Along Nares Strait

Arctic Cloud Response to a Perturbation in Sea Ice Concentration: The North Water Polynya

Mixed time series approaches for forecasting the daily number of hospital blood collections

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