Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Abstract

Abstract. Integrated risk assessment approaches to support coastal managers' decisions when designing plans are 10 increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficient coastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, the Bayesian Network approach to coastal risk assessment was applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts (Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi-Spina in Italy). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards at the receptor scale based on a large number of storm characteristics. Hazards are converted into impacts through vulnerability relations. A Bayesian 15Network integrates all results to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. The tool has been proven successful in reproducing current coastal responses at both sites. It has also shown great utility for scenario comparisons, and is able to output significant impact change trends, despite the inherent uncertainties of the approach. This work highlights the advantages of using such a tool for present and future coastal risk assessment and planning. 20

How good are symmetric triangular synthetic storms to represent real events for coastal hazard modelling

“…The analysis has shown that, although using synthetic time-series to represent wave forcing for simulating storm-induced coastal hazards is a widely-used approach (e.g. McCall et al, 2010;Corbella and Stretch, 2012b;Poelhekke et al, 2016;Plomaritis et al, 2018;Sanuy et al, 2018), the obtained results can significantly differ than those obtained using the real time-series they are intended to represent. This study represents the first attempt to quantify the uncertainty related to the use of these types of synthetic events in deterministic modelling.…”

“…STSSs are often used to cover all of the possible combinations of forcing (including those not previously recorded) when hazard and risk assessment approaches are applied, by simulating a large number of realistic storm conditions (e.g. Poelhekke et al, 2016;Plomaritis et al, 2018;Sanuy et al, 2018;Santos et al, 2019).…”

Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (Southern Italy)

“…Storm impact assessment on urbanized coastal areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Sanuy et al, 2018;Lira-Loarca et al, 2020;Amores et al, 2020;Cavaleri et al, 2019;Jiménez et al, 2018;Amarouche et al, 2020) has become an issue of high scientific and social interest due to the alarming effects related to the climate changes observed over the last decades (Young and Ribal, 2019;Lionello and Scarascia, 2020;Gulev and Grigorieva, 2004), not only in the form of an increasing trend in significant wave heights (H s ) and wind speed (W s ) (Dobrynin et al, 2012;Reguero et al, 2019;Vieira et al, 2020;Meucci et al, 2020), but also due to the accelerated relative sea level rise.…”

Differences in assigning probabilities to coastal inundation hazard estimators: Event versus response approaches

“…Thus, the literature provides examples of regional parametric methodologies that scale hazard intensity using simple variables such as run‐up, surge or total water level (TWL, e.g., hurricane impact at U.S. coasts in Stockdon et al, ; storm impact along the Emilia‐Romagna coast facing the Northern Adriatic described by Armaroli et al, , and Armaroli & Duo, ; or storm impact in the northwestern Mediterranean coastline in Jiménez, Sanuy, Ballesteros, & Valdemoro, ). Other approaches exist that assess the inundation at local (or even regional) scales using overtopping/overwash discharges or volumes as hazard estimators (e.g., Chini & Stansby, ) or by directly producing inundation maps (e.g., Prime, Brown, & Plater, ), which can later be used to derive impacts by using receptor vulnerability data, and assess risks for decision support in coastal managing (e.g., Sanuy, Duo, Jäger, Ciavola, & Jiménez, ).…”