Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of <i>modus operandi</i> behaviours, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity

Markson, Lucy; Woodhams, Jessica; Bond, John W.

doi:10.1002/jip.120

Cited by 66 publications

(159 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…The similarity is calculated using Jaccard Index [9]. Using Jaccard Index is in line with previous studies [10] that has also used Jaccard Index to measure behavioral similarity in binary data. The Jaccard Index is calculated as followed:…”

Section: Inputmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…When running the experiment to answer this research question we will use only crime reports with known offenders. Previous research suggests that crimes with the same offender can generate crime route series with higher similarity than a random sample [17,10,18].…”

Section: Rq I Given Unlabeled Data To What Extent Is the Algorithm Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Markson et al [10] studied 160 crimes to see if they too could find evidence that different types of soft evidence could be used to link crimes. They found that only the spatial and temporal data was feasible to link crimes.…”

Section: B and Fosdickmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A complement to forensic evidence is to use behavioral features in order to identify serial offenders. The reason why behavioral features can be used is because offenders often use the same behavior when committing crimes [17,18,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In crime theory, serial offenders often use the same technique and behavior when committing crimes [17,10,18]. This behavior is called Modus Operandi (MO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Detecting Crime Series Based on Route Estimation and Behavioral Similarity

Borg

Boldt

Eliasson

2017

2017 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC)

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Context. A majority of crimes are committed by a minority of offenders. Previous research has provided some support for the theory that serial offenders leave behavioral traces on the crime scene which could be used to link crimes to serial offenders. Objectives. Our objective was to investigate to what extent we could use route estimations and behavioral data to detect serial offenders. Method. To investigate if we could find crime routes with high similarity we ran experiments using behavioral data from authentic burglary reports. We also used used burglary reports from serial offenders to investigate to what extent we could detect serial offender crime routes. Results. The result show that crime series with the same offender on average had a higher behavioral similarity than random crime series. We also found crime series with high similarity without a known offender which could be interesting for law enforcement to investigate further. Conclusion. Our results suggest that it is possible to detect crime series committed by the same offender using behavioral data from the burglary. There is also potential for the law enforcement to detect interesting crime series with high similarity using behavioral similarity.

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Section: Inputmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Rq I Given Unlabeled Data To What Extent Is the Algorithm Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B and Fosdickmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In crime theory, serial offenders often use the same technique and behavior when committing crimes [17,10,18]. This behavior is called Modus Operandi (MO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Detecting Crime Series Based on Route Estimation and Behavioral Similarity

Borg

Boldt

Eliasson

2017

2017 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC)

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Offender Profiling and Crime Linkage

Woodhams,

Tonkin

2017

Forensic Psychology

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Linking Personal Robbery Offences Using Offender Behaviour

Burrell

Bull

Bond

2012

Journal Invest Psychology

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Case linkage uses crime scene behaviours to identify series of crimes committed by the same offender. This paper tests the underlying assumptions of case linkage (behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness) by comparing the behavioural similarity of linked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by the same offender) with the behavioural similarity of unlinked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by different offenders). It is hypothesised that linked pairs will be more behaviourally similar than unlinked pairs thereby providing evidence for the two assumptions. The current research uses logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses to explore which behaviours can be used to reliably link personal robbery offences using a sample of 166 solved offences committed by 83 offenders. The method of generating unlinked pairs is then refined to reflect how the police work at a local level, and the success of predictive factors re‐tested. Both phases of the research provide evidence of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness with linked pairs displaying more similarity than unlinked pairs across a range of behavioural domains. Inter‐crime distance and target selection emerge as the most useful linkage factors with promising results also found for temporal proximity and control. No evidence was found to indicate that the property stolen is useful for linkage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviours, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity

Abstract: Whilst case linkage is used with serious forms of serial crime (e.g. rape and murder)

Cited by 66 publications

References 26 publications

Detecting Crime Series Based on Route Estimation and Behavioral Similarity

Detecting Crime Series Based on Route Estimation and Behavioral Similarity

Offender Profiling and Crime Linkage

Linking Personal Robbery Offences Using Offender Behaviour

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