Linking remote sensing and various site factors for predicting the spatial distribution of eastern hemlock occurrence and relative basal area in Maine, USA
Abstract:a b s t r a c tIntroduced invasive pests are perhaps the most important and persistent catalyst for changes in forest composition. Infestation and outbreak of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae; HWA) along the eastern coast of the USA, has led to widespread loss of hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), and a shift in tree species composition toward hardwood stands.Developing an understanding of the geographic distribution of individual species can inform conservation practices that seek to maintain fu… Show more
“…Based on the current predictive model [18], Tsuga canadensis occupies a 241 km band running southwest to northeast along the coast, with little-to-no occurrence beyond this belt (Figure 1). Tsuga canadensis-dominated stands appeared predominantly in the southern region of the state.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Model calibrations were conducted using the predictive model described in Dunckel et al [18], which used over 3000 field reference plots and 11 predictor variables to predict and map Tsuga canadensis distribution throughout Maine, U.S. at 30 m resolution ( Figure 1). The reference plots were largely (n = 2607) provided by the United States Forest Service (USFS), Federal Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program.…”
Section: Model Calibrationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The models used in this research rely on model calibrations described in earlier work by Dunckel et al [18], where we predicted the current distribution (as a percent of total stand basal area) of Tsuga canadensis in Maine using over 3000 field reference plots and 11 predictor variables derived from satellite imagery and ancillary GIS data with an overall prediction accuracy of 83%. Climate variables, particularly average yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, were found to be positively correlated with hemlock occurrence.…”
Climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems around the world and is expected to alter the suitable habitat of individual tree species. Forest managers require resources about potential impacts of climate change at the regional scale to aid in climate mitigation efforts. By understanding the geographic distribution of changes in suitable habitat, migration corridors can be identified for conservation and active management. With the increased availability of climate projection data, ancillary Geographic Information Systems data, and field observations, modeling efforts at the regional scale are now possible. Here, we modeled and mapped the continuous distribution of Tsuga canadensis throughout the state of Maine at the regional scale(30 m) with high precision (89% of pixels had a coefficient of variation ≤ 4.0%). The random forest algorithm was used to create a strong prediction of suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2100 from both high and low emission climate projections. The results clearly suggest a significant gain in suitable habitat for Tsuga canadensis range with a general northwest expansion.
“…Based on the current predictive model [18], Tsuga canadensis occupies a 241 km band running southwest to northeast along the coast, with little-to-no occurrence beyond this belt (Figure 1). Tsuga canadensis-dominated stands appeared predominantly in the southern region of the state.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Model calibrations were conducted using the predictive model described in Dunckel et al [18], which used over 3000 field reference plots and 11 predictor variables to predict and map Tsuga canadensis distribution throughout Maine, U.S. at 30 m resolution ( Figure 1). The reference plots were largely (n = 2607) provided by the United States Forest Service (USFS), Federal Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program.…”
Section: Model Calibrationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The models used in this research rely on model calibrations described in earlier work by Dunckel et al [18], where we predicted the current distribution (as a percent of total stand basal area) of Tsuga canadensis in Maine using over 3000 field reference plots and 11 predictor variables derived from satellite imagery and ancillary GIS data with an overall prediction accuracy of 83%. Climate variables, particularly average yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, were found to be positively correlated with hemlock occurrence.…”
Climate change is having an impact on forest ecosystems around the world and is expected to alter the suitable habitat of individual tree species. Forest managers require resources about potential impacts of climate change at the regional scale to aid in climate mitigation efforts. By understanding the geographic distribution of changes in suitable habitat, migration corridors can be identified for conservation and active management. With the increased availability of climate projection data, ancillary Geographic Information Systems data, and field observations, modeling efforts at the regional scale are now possible. Here, we modeled and mapped the continuous distribution of Tsuga canadensis throughout the state of Maine at the regional scale(30 m) with high precision (89% of pixels had a coefficient of variation ≤ 4.0%). The random forest algorithm was used to create a strong prediction of suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2100 from both high and low emission climate projections. The results clearly suggest a significant gain in suitable habitat for Tsuga canadensis range with a general northwest expansion.
“…Understanding the basic requirements of living habitats and distribution of each species is a top priority for conservation programs and action plans. Developing an understanding of the geographic distribution of tree species can provide important sources of information for conservation practices that seek to preserve the biodiversity of ecosystems (Dunckel et al 2015). These pieces of information can also be used to determine suitable areas aiming to protect habitats through the management of natural reserves.…”
Cunninghamia konishii Hayata is a rare and endangered plant species that plays a relevant role in ecological andcommercial systems of natural forests in Vietnam. In this research, we evaluated the potential geographic distribution ofC. konishii under current and future climatic conditions in Northern Vietnam using the ecological niche modelling approachbased on the largest available database of occurrence records for this species. C. konishii is mainly distributed inthe northern part of Vietnam at altitudes above 1000 m where the slopes range between 12 and 25 degrees, particularlyin special-use and protected forest. The optimal distribution area of C. konishii requires specific climatic conditions: anannual precipitation around 1200 mm, precipitation of the warmest quarter ranging from 600 to 800 mm, a precipitationseasonality of 90 to100 mm, an annual mean temperature ranging from 12°C to 19°C, and a temperature seasonalityranging from 300 to 350. Additionally, the species requires specific soil groups: humic acrisols, ferralic acrisols, andyellow-red humic soils. Considering these requirements, the results of our research show that the suitable regions for thegrowth of C. konishii are found in the provinces of Ha Giang, Son La, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An, covering a total area of1509.56 km2. However, analyzing the results under the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) model, itis possible to observe that the area will decline to 504.39 km2 by 2090 according to RCP 2.6 scenario, to 406.25 km2 inthe RCP 4.5 scenario, and to 47.62 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The findings of this present research may be applied toseveral additional studies such as identifying current and future locations to establish conservation areas for C. konishii.
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