Linking livestock snow disaster mortality and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Quantification based on generalized additive models

Li, Yijia; Ye, Tao; Liu, Weihang; Yougang, Gao

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.230

Cited by 27 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…(1) From the modelling perspective, the event-based framework retains the capability to accommodate multiple events in a year, which is one characteristic of snow disasters. This is important for snow disasters as earlier studies demonstrated that livestock mortality rate exhibits a concave relationship with disaster duration (Li et al, 2018). The losses of one event lasting for 30 days and two events lasting for 15 days each are clearly different.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Livestock snow disasters are serious winter extreme weather events that widely occur in central-to-east Asian temperate steppe and alpine steppes (Li et al, 2018;Tachiiri et al, 2008). In the pastoral areas of these regions, heavy snowfall provides thick and long-lasting snow cover, making forage unavailable or inaccessible (Fernández-Giménez et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attempts have been made to develop techniques, such as snow disaster monitoring, forecasting, and rapid assessment, to provide critical information for prevention and addressing emergencies (W. Yin et al, 2017). Quantitative analyses have also been conducted to derive the relationship between livestock loss, snow hazard, and various environmental stressors (Li et al, 2018;Mukund Palat et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…risk-based investment for resilience and adaptation (UNISDR, 2015). Following the mainstreaming risk assessment framework of risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability (Jongman et al, 2015), several ordinal risk assessment studies have evaluated livestock snow disasters in Inner Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) of China (Li et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2014;Wu et al, 2007). Generally, they derive the measure of risk as an ordinal index by integrating indices representing different components of risk, e.g., the world risk report (Birkmann and Welle, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Liu

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Understanding risk using quantitative risk assessment offers critical information for risk-informed reduction actions, investing in building resilience, and planning for adaptation. This study develops an event-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and derives risk assessment results based on historical climate conditions (1980–2015) and present-day prevention capacity. In the model, a hazard module was developed to identify and simulate individual snow disaster events based on boosted regression trees. By combining a fitted quantitative vulnerability function and exposure derived from vegetation type and grassland carrying capacity, we estimated risk metrics based on livestock mortality and mortality rate. In our results, high-risk regions include the Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tanggula Range, Bayankhar Mountains and the region between the Kailas Range and the neighbouring Himalayas. In these regions, annual livestock mortality rates were estimated as >2 % and mortality was estimated as >2 sheep unit km−1 at a return period of 20 years. Prefectures identified with extremely high risk include Guoluo in Qinghai Province and Naqu, and Shigatse in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In these prefectures, a snow disaster event with a return period of 20 years or higher can easily claim total losses of more than 500 000 sheep units. Our event-based PRA results provide a quantitative reference for preparedness and insurance solutions in reducing mortality risk. The methodology developed here can be further adapted to future climate change risk analyses and provide important information for planning climate change adaption in the QTP region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Liu

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…To fulfil the goal of event-based modelling, the vulnerability relationship must be built on event basis. Therefore, the results from (Li et al, 2018;Ye et al, 2018) were considered. Following their suggestion from the multi-method comparison, we chose the predictive version of the generalized additive model, ln s ,…”

Section: Vulnerability Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Livestock Snow Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Liu

Shi

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

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Abstract. Understanding risk using a quantitative risk assessment offers critical information for risk-informed reduction actions, investing in building resilience, and planning for adaptation. This study develops an event-based probabilistic risk assessment model for livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and derives risk assessment results based on historical climate conditions (1980–2015) and present-day prevention capacity. In the model a hazard module was developed to identify/simulate individual snow disaster events based on boosted regression trees. Together with a fitted quantitative vulnerability function, and exposure derived from vegetation type and grassland carrying capacity, risk metrics based on livestock mortality and mortality rate were estimated. In our results, high risk regions include the Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tanggula Range, Bayankhar Mountains and the region between the Kailas Range and neighboring Himalayas. In these regions, annual livestock mortality rates were estimated as > 2 % and mortality was estimated as > 2 sheep unit/km2 at a return period of 1/20 a. Prefectures identified with extremely high risk included Yushu in Qinghai Province and Naqu, Shigatse, Linzhi, and Nagri in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In these prefectures, a snow disaster event with return period of 1/20 a or higher can easily claim a total loss of more than 200 000 sheep units. Our results provide a quantitative reference for preparedness and insurance solutions in reducing mortality risk. The methodology developed here can be further adapted to future climate change risk analyses and provide important information for planning climate change adaption in the QTP region.

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RNA sampling time on postmortem avian carcasses in the wild

Shao,

Hou,

Chen

et al. 2023

Wildlife Biology

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Genetic sampling, especially high‐quality RNA from wild avian populations, is challenging in wildlife biology due to rapid RNA degradation. Although carcasses could be a potential RNA source, the optimal postmortem sampling time on the avian carcasses under field conditions remains unclear. Here, we carried out a field experiment on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) and evaluated the relationship between PMI and RNA degradation in three tissue types (muscle, brain, and liver) of the domestic chicken Gallus gallus domesticus carcasses. In the muscle and brain tissues, we found that the RNA Integrity Number (RIN) of samples collected within 60 h postmortem was more than 7.0, suggesting a high RNA extract quality. The following RNA‐seq experiment demonstrated that gene expression profiles of the samples collected within 36 h postmortem were comparable to those of fresh samples (i.e. 0 h), with a low percentage of differentially expressed genes (< 3.0%) observed between samples at 0 and 36 h postmortem. However, in the liver tissue, RNA samples already degraded at 12 h postmortem, showing low RIN values (< 7.0), different gene expression profiles from fresh samples, and a high percentage of differentially expressed genes (15.6%). Therefore, our study suggests that samples from muscle and brain tissues collected within 36 h postmortem are qualified for RNA‐seq analyses. In contrast, only the fresh RNA samples from liver tissue are qualified. Our study provides a practicable and efficient sampling strategy for the transcriptome study on avian populations under extreme environment such as the QTP.

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Linking livestock snow disaster mortality and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Quantification based on generalized additive models

Cited by 27 publications

References 29 publications

Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Livestock Snow Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

RNA sampling time on postmortem avian carcasses in the wild

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