Linking Landscapes and People --Projecting the Future of the Great Plains

Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve

doi:10.1016/j.rala.2018.12.001

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Study region, time period, and scenarios of a given application are typically dictated by project resources and stakeholder interests. The most recent broad-scale application of the FORE-SCE model provided parcel-based modeling for a number of future climate and socioeconomic scenarios in the US Great Plains from 2014 to 2100 [13,23]. Our methodology here builds from that work, with substantial adaptations to: (1) accommodate the challenge of modeling long-term historical landscape reconstruction at a moderately high spatial and thematic resolution, (2) revamp urban modeling including the first FORE-SCE application with multiple urban density classes, and (3) provide additional improvements in model function and efficiency.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States

Dornbierer

Wika

Robison

et al. 2021

Land

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Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term historical and future landscape change was applied in the Delaware River Basin of the United States. A parcel-based modeling framework was used to reconstruct historical landscapes back to 1680, parameterized with a variety of spatial and nonspatial historical datasets. Similarly, scenarios of future landscape change were modeled for multiple scenarios out to 2100. Results demonstrate the ability to represent historical land cover proportions and general patterns at broad spatial scales and model multiple potential future landscape trajectories. The resulting land cover collection provides consistent data from 1680 through 2100, at a 30-m spatial resolution, 10-year intervals, and high thematic resolution. The data are consistent with the spatial and thematic characteristics of widely used national-scale land cover datasets, facilitating use within existing land management and research workflows. The methodology demonstrated in the Delaware River Basin is extensible and scalable, with potential applications at national scales for the United States.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States

Dornbierer

Wika

Robison

et al. 2021

Land

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“…of precipitation in the east to less than 11 in. in the far west (Sohl et al 2019). Further, with the Gulf of Mexico as the major source of moisture, precipitation amounts also decrease moving north and west away from the Gulf.…”

Section: Southern Plains Central Texas Hill Countrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Great Plains have a continental climate that follows a north-south temperature gradient ranging from a daily average temperature of 46 °F in the north to 66 °F in the south, with locally extreme ranges that can reach an annual temperature range of 140 °F (Sohl et al 2019, Rosenberg 1987. North Dakota can range from -50 °F in the winter to 121 °F in the summer, and the northern Great Plains are known to have the coldest winters in the lower United States, while the southern Great Plains are as hot as the southeast United States in summer (Rosenberg 1987:23).…”

Section: Southern Plains Central Texas Hill Countrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Nationwide context and evaluation methodology for farmstead and ranch historic sites and historic archaeological sites on DoD property

Baxter¹,

Enscore²,

Hartman³

et al. 2021

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The Army is tasked with managing the cultural resources on its lands. For installations that contain large numbers of historic farmsteads, meeting these requirements through traditional archaeological approaches entails large investments of personnel, time and organization capital. Through two previous projects, Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (ERDC-CERL) cultural resource management personnel developed a methodology for efficiently identifying the best examples of historic farmstead sites, and also those sites that are least likely to be deemed eligible for listing on the National Register of Historic Places. This report details testing the applicability of the methodology to regions across the country. Regional historic contexts were created to assist in the determination of “typical” farmsteads. The Farmstead/Ranch Eligibility Evaluation Form created by ERDC-CERL researchers was revised to reflect the broader geographic scope and the inclusion of ranches as a property type. The form was then used to test 29 sites at five military installations. The results of the fieldwork show this approach is applicable nationwide, and it can be used to quickly identify basic information about historic farmstead sites that can expedite determinations of eligibility to the National Register.

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“…The predictors included in the model were based on input from wildlife management agency personnel. However, in subsequent years, landscapes in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. have changed and are projected to continue to change [ 28 ]. It is important to understand changes in habitat suitability over time to ensure management actions are based on the most recently available predictor data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken

et al. 2021

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Habitat loss from land-use change is one of the top causes of declines in wildlife species of concern. As such, it is critical to assess and reassess habitat suitability as land cover and anthropogenic features change for both monitoring and developing current information to inform management decisions. However, there are obstacles that must be overcome to develop consistent assessments through time. A range-wide lek habitat suitability model for the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), currently under review by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service for potential listing under the Endangered Species Act, was published in 2016. This model was based on lek data from 2002 to 2012, land cover data ranging from 2001 to 2013, and anthropogenic features from circa 2011, and has been used to help guide lesser prairie-chicken management and anthropogenic development actions. We created a second iteration model based on new lek surveys (2015 to 2019) and updated predictors (2016 land cover and cleaned/updated anthropogenic data) to evaluate changes in lek suitability and to quantify current range-wide habitat suitability. Only three of 11 predictor variables were directly comparable between the iterations, making it difficult to directly assess what predicted changes resulted from changes in model inputs versus actual landscape change. The second iteration model showed a similar positive relationship with land cover and negative relationship with anthropogenic features to the first iteration, but exhibited more variation among candidate models. Range-wide, more suitable habitat was predicted in the second iteration. The Shinnery Oak Ecoregion, however, exhibited a loss in predicted suitable habitat that could be due to predictor source changes. Iterated models such as this are important to ensure current information is being used in conservation and development decisions.

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Linking Landscapes and People --Projecting the Future of the Great Plains

Cited by 9 publications

References 7 publications

Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States

Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States

Nationwide context and evaluation methodology for farmstead and ranch historic sites and historic archaeological sites on DoD property

Challenges in updating habitat suitability models: An example with the lesser prairie-chicken

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